SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

United Kingdom's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals13188
# data points249
# variables11
chi-square 1.3381e+11
reduced chi-square 5.6223e+08
Akaike info crit. 5027.45902
Bayesian info crit. 5066.15100

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 4.2245e-08 0.00021386533236245064 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.59974135 0.5543849328410502 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.01266911 0.3919503380304401 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 0.17051129 3.6394717024368766 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 0.09437774 0.23152402113710802 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.10062766 1.2008251516553938 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02576739 0.023812264369881958 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.07142857 0.023809912019940715 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 0.00391308 2.3455265839578132e-06 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00401606 0.004016064257028112 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 0.00639549 0.0021318636911358537 -inf inf False gammaD*0.0821787881785438/(1-0.0821787881785438)
dI 0.00703905 0.0025599955402168394 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 66647112.0 66647112 -inf inf False
N0 4320610.51 978378.9605479733 0.00000000 66647112.0 True
S0 9796648.75 3.7181557566157153e-07 0.00000000 33323552.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 2.00000000 2 -inf inf False
D0 2.00000000 2 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 0.00000000 978374.9605476015 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 249.000000 249 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
021
121
221
321
432
533
646
7410
8417
9827
10942
11963
121091
1310127
1410174
1510232
1610304
1710392
1810497
1910623
2010771
2110943
22111144
23111374
24111637
25131935
26182272
27222651
28303074
29423544
30474065
31694639
321095270
331645960
342206713
352717531
363528419
374129377
3846910409
3961711518
4087612705
41128213974
42176615326
43224416763
44260518286
45304719898
46365821599
47442723391
48542625274
49648127247
50773629313
51893431469
521031233716
531265036053
541502538479
551771740992
562080443590
572400146272
582682349035
592968151877
603395454794
613846857784
624338160844
634824963969
645316067156
655718070401
666077273701
676605477050
687150480445
697663583882
708149387355
718580690861
728938594396
739287497953
7497052101531
75101378105123
76106443108726
77111735112336
78116691115948
79121412119559
80125265123165
81130119126762
82134879130347
83140366133916
84145524137466
85150494140995
86154242144499
87157715147976
88162421151423
89167150154839
90172592158221
91177558161567
92182295164876
93185524168146
94188506171375
95191895174563
96195577177709
97199404180811
98203171183869
99206234186883
100208391189851
101210720192774
102214306195651
103217708198483
104221015201269
105223643204010
106226169206705
107228248209355
108230086211960
109232675214522
110235727217039
111238445219513
112241019221945
113243081224334
114244608226682
115245972228990
116247596231258
117249268233487
118251103235678
119252863237831
120254390239947
121255515242028
122256594244074
123258035246086
124259519248065
125260875250011
126262118251926
127263238253810
128264039255665
129264760257490
130265859259287
131267017261057
132268216262799
133269233264516
134270285266208
135271175267876
136271997269520
137273040271140
138274142272739
139275155274316
140276182275872
141277168277407
142277855278923
143278494280419
144279390281897
145280276283357
146281054284800
147281775286225
148282446287634
149283095289027
150283541290405
151284271291767
152284888293115
153285539294449
154286141295769
155286720297075
156287121298368
157287676299649
158288380300918
159288977302174
160289670303419
161290385304652
162290950305875
163291392307086
164291753308288
165292479309479
166293164310660
167293936311831
168294640312993
169295209314145
170295702315288
171296115316423
172296908317549
173297659318667
174298432319776
175299163320877
176299830321970
177300251323056
178300622324133
179300692325204
180301455326267
181302301327323
182303181328372
183303952329414
184304695330449
185305623331477
186306293332499
187307184333515
188308134334524
189309005335527
190309763336523
191310825337514
192311641338499
193312789339478
194313798340451
195314927341418
196316367342380
197317444343336
198318484344287
199319197345232
200320286346172
201321098347107
202322280348036
203323313348960
204324601349880
205325642350794
206326614351703
207327798352607
208328846353507
209330368354402
210331644355291
211332752356177
212334467357057
213335873357933
214337168358805
215338676359671
216340411360534
217342351361392
218344164362245
219347152363094
220350100363939
221352560364780
222355219365616
223358138366448
224361677367276
225365174368100
226368504368920
227371125369736
228374228370547
229378219371355
230381614372159
231385936372958
232390358373754
233394257374546
234398625375334
235403551376119
236409729376899
237416363377676
238423236378449
239429277379218
240434969379984
241439013380746
242446156381504
243453264382259
244460178383010
245467146383758
246480017384502
247502978385243
248515571385980
249nan386714
250nan387444
251nan388171
252nan388894
253nan389614
254nan390331
255nan391045
256nan391755
257nan392462
258nan393166
259nan393866
260nan394563
261nan395257
262nan395948

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi