SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

United Kingdom's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals3502
# data points249
# variables11
chi-square 1.9793e+11
reduced chi-square 8.3163e+08
Akaike info crit. 5124.93599
Bayesian info crit. 5163.62797

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 2.1387e-04 1.2e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.55438493 0.55 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.39195034 0.001 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 3.63947170 0.01 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 0.23152402 0.2 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.20082515 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02381226 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.02380991 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 2.3455e-06 0.0001 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00401606 0.004016064257028112 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 0.00213186 0.004069855233840171 -inf inf False gammaD*0.0821787881785438/(1-0.0821787881785438)
dI 0.00256000 0.005697797327376239 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 66647112.0 66647112 -inf inf False
N0 978378.961 644463.75 0.00000000 66647112.0 True
S0 3.7182e-07 0 0.00000000 33323552.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 2.00000000 2 -inf inf False
D0 2.00000000 2 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 978374.961 644459.75 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 249.000000 249 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
022
123
223
325
436
538
6411
7415
8421
9828
10937
11950
121066
131087
1410115
1510151
1610198
1710259
1810338
1910440
2010570
2110738
2211950
23111218
24111554
25131971
26182481
27223099
28303836
29424702
30475703
31696844
321098122
331649537
3422011080
3527112746
3635214525
3741216408
3846918386
3961720449
4087622590
41128224798
42176627067
43224429388
44260531756
45304734164
46365836606
47442739077
48542641573
49648144090
50773646624
51893449172
521031251731
531265054298
541502556872
551771759449
562080462030
572400164610
582682367191
592968169770
603395472346
613846874918
624338177486
634824980049
645316082607
655718085157
666077287702
676605490239
687150492768
697663595290
708149397804
7185806100309
7289385102806
7392874105295
7497052107774
75101378110245
76106443112707
77111735115160
78116691117604
79121412120038
80125265122464
81130119124880
82134879127287
83140366129684
84145524132073
85150494134452
86154242136822
87157715139182
88162421141533
89167150143875
90172592146208
91177558148532
92182295150846
93185524153151
94188506155447
95191895157734
96195577160012
97199404162281
98203171164541
99206234166791
100208391169033
101210720171266
102214306173490
103217708175705
104221015177911
105223643180108
106226169182297
107228248184476
108230086186647
109232675188810
110235727190963
111238445193108
112241019195245
113243081197373
114244608199492
115245972201603
116247596203705
117249268205799
118251103207885
119252863209962
120254390212031
121255515214092
122256594216144
123258035218188
124259519220224
125260875222252
126262118224272
127263238226283
128264039228287
129264760230282
130265859232270
131267017234249
132268216236221
133269233238184
134270285240140
135271175242088
136271997244028
137273040245960
138274142247885
139275155249802
140276182251711
141277168253612
142277855255506
143278494257393
144279390259271
145280276261143
146281054263006
147281775264863
148282446266711
149283095268553
150283541270387
151284271272213
152284888274033
153285539275845
154286141277649
155286720279447
156287121281237
157287676283020
158288380284796
159288977286565
160289670288327
161290385290082
162290950291829
163291392293570
164291753295304
165292479297030
166293164298750
167293936300463
168294640302169
169295209303868
170295702305561
171296115307246
172296908308925
173297659310597
174298432312263
175299163313921
176299830315573
177300251317219
178300622318858
179300692320490
180301455322116
181302301323735
182303181325348
183303952326954
184304695328554
185305623330147
186306293331734
187307184333315
188308134334889
189309005336457
190309763338019
191310825339574
192311641341123
193312789342666
194313798344203
195314927345734
196316367347258
197317444348777
198318484350289
199319197351795
200320286353296
201321098354790
202322280356278
203323313357760
204324601359236
205325642360707
206326614362171
207327798363630
208328846365083
209330368366529
210331644367971
211332752369406
212334467370836
213335873372259
214337168373678
215338676375090
216340411376497
217342351377898
218344164379293
219347152380683
220350100382068
221352560383447
222355219384820
223358138386188
224361677387550
225365174388907
226368504390258
227371125391604
228374228392945
229378219394280
230381614395610
231385936396934
232390358398254
233394257399567
234398625400876
235403551402180
236409729403478
237416363404771
238423236406058
239429277407341
240434969408619
241439013409891
242446156411158
243453264412420
244460178413677
245467146414930
246480017416177
247502978417419
248515571418656
249nan419888
250nan421115
251nan422337
252nan423555
253nan424767
254nan425975
255nan427177
256nan428375
257nan429569
258nan430757
259nan431941
260nan433119
261nan434293
262nan435463

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi