SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

United Kingdom's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals49
# data points249
# variables5
chi-square 1.8248e+08
reduced chi-square 747856.484
Akaike info crit. 3372.66574
Bayesian info crit. 3390.25301

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 27.4242513 2.06452575 (7.53%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -1188.31060 132.543449 (11.15%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 36847.4020 379.961479 (1.03%) 42369 -inf inf True
step_center 83.0548352 0.23641297 (0.28%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 25.7024556 0.52645176 (2.05%) 35.42857142857143 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9161
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.6840
line_slopestep_sigma-0.5699
line_interceptstep_center0.5142
line_slopestep_center-0.2790
line_slopeline_intercept-0.2653
line_interceptstep_sigma-0.1864
step_amplitudestep_center0.1529

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
00-1188
10-1161
20-1133
30-1106
40-1078
50-1051
60-1023
70-996
80-968
90-941
100-913
110-885
120-858
130-830
140-802
150-774
160-745
170-717
180-688
190-659
200-630
210-601
220-571
230-540
240-509
250-477
260-444
270-410
280-375
290-339
300-301
310-261
320-219
330-175
340-128
351-78
362-24
37234
38397
397164
407237
419317
4210404
4329498
4443601
4565714
4682837
47116972
481621118
491941279
502521453
512881643
523641850
535122074
547032317
558842580
5611722864
5714643169
5816763498
5920503850
6024534227
6131254629
6237825056
6345185511
6452745991
6558736499
6664407034
6775457595
6885758184
6996918798
70108139438
711165610102
721231310791
731303711501
741411312233
751499312984
761602913754
771694214539
781804715338
791847916149
801904916970
812027317798
822112018631
832180219467
842281220303
852362721137
862399121966
872431122787
882528023600
892604924400
902668325187
912738125958
922796526712
932821827446
942849028159
952921628850
962986329517
973032130159
983090030776
993117531368
1003139231932
1013157932470
1023219332980
1033264033464
1043299233921
1053334234352
1063375334757
1073382035136
1083396635491
1093446635822
1103479436130
1113506736416
1123535836681
1133557836926
1143595737153
1153606137361
1163619237553
1173661437729
1183695737891
1193723138039
1203738538175
1213744538299
1223753138413
1233778038517
1243803438613
1253816438700
1263842238781
1273856538854
1283861938923
1293866638985
1303886139044
1313902539098
1323910139149
1333923239196
1343933939241
1353936639283
1363939539323
1373951539361
1383962539398
1393969239433
1403977639467
1413984739500
1423987839532
1433989239563
1443998639593
1454007339624
1464017239653
1474024939682
1484028939711
1494032039740
1504034139768
1514039439797
1524049139825
1534053239853
1544058139881
1554061339908
1564063239936
1574064339964
1584069739991
1594075440019
1604078540047
1614081940074
1624083640102
1634084540129
1644085540157
1654089940184
1664092540211
1674094940239
1684097540266
1694098440294
1704099540321
1714100540349
1724103040376
1734104740403
1744105640431
1754108840458
1764110340486
1774111140513
1784111440541
1794113540568
1804116940595
1814116940623
1824118940650
1834120240678
1844120740705
1854120840733
1864122640760
1874124040787
1884125840815
1894127040842
1904127340870
1914127840897
1924129640925
1934130940952
1944132940979
1954134741007
1964135841034
1974136141062
1984136641089
1994136941117
2004138141144
2014139741171
2024140341199
2034140541226
2044142341254
2054142941281
2064143341308
2074144941336
2084146541363
2094147741391
2104148641418
2114149841446
2124149941473
2134150141500
2144150441528
2154151441555
2164152741583
2174153741610
2184154941638
2194155141665
2204155441692
2214158641720
2224159441747
2234160841775
2244161441802
2254162341830
2264162841857
2274163741884
2284166441912
2294168441939
2304170541967
2314173241994
2324175942022
2334177742049
2344178842076
2354182542104
2364186242131
2374190242159
2384193642186
2394197142213
2404198842241
2414200142268
2424207242296
2434214342323
2444220242351
2454226842378
2464231742405
2474235042433
2484236942460
249nan42488
250nan42515
251nan42543
252nan42570
253nan42597
254nan42625
255nan42652

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi