SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

United Kingdom's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_voigt)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals47
# data points249
# variables4
chi-square 2245953.10
reduced chi-square 9167.15550
Akaike info crit. 2275.68972
Bayesian info crit. 2289.75953

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 46151.3328 1192.32516 (2.58%) 75276.0 -inf inf True
center 61.9695612 0.53082134 (0.86%) 79.07142857142857 -inf inf True
sigma 17.7741815 0.81713015 (4.60%) 20.5 0.00000000 inf True
skew 2.79376168 0.41309163 (14.79%) 0.0 -inf inf True
gamma 17.7741815 0.81713015 (4.60%) 20.5 -inf inf False sigma

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

sigmaskew0.6979
centersigma-0.6790
amplitudesigma0.5974
centerskew-0.5427
amplitudecenter-0.3767
amplitudeskew0.2010

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
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64756676
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681030874
691116904
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71843940
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741076945
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77913910
781105893
79432874
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811224832
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841010765
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Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi