SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

United Kingdom's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals127
# data points249
# variables5
chi-square 9.6855e+10
reduced chi-square 3.9695e+08
Akaike info crit. 4934.97701
Bayesian info crit. 4952.56427

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 1228.32331 40.2355324 (3.28%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -34094.7991 2817.14226 (8.26%) 2 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 129619.185 6916.15543 (5.34%) 515569 -inf inf True
step_center 82.6368621 1.15159865 (1.39%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 16.9918682 2.46206154 (14.49%) 35.42857142857143 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.8903
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.5739
line_slopestep_sigma-0.4731
line_interceptstep_center0.4234
line_slopeline_intercept-0.3687
line_slopestep_center-0.2260
step_amplitudestep_center0.1172

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
02-34095
12-32866
22-31638
32-30410
43-29182
53-27953
64-26725
74-25497
84-24268
98-23040
109-21812
119-20583
1210-19355
1310-18127
1410-16898
1510-15670
1610-14442
1710-13213
1810-11985
1910-10757
2010-9528
2110-8300
2211-7072
2311-5843
2411-4615
2513-3387
2618-2158
2722-930
2830299
29421527
30472756
31693984
321095213
331646442
342207672
352718901
3635210132
3741211363
3846912595
3961713828
4087615063
41128216301
42176617541
43224418786
44260520036
45304721292
46365822557
47442723832
48542625120
49648126425
50773627749
51893429098
521031230476
531265031890
541502533346
551771734852
562080436417
572400138050
582682339761
592968141562
603395443465
613846845482
624338147627
634824949912
645316052352
655718054958
666077257743
676605460718
687150463893
697663567276
708149370871
718580674684
728938578713
739287482956
749705287407
7510137892057
7610644396892
77111735101897
78116691107052
79121412112336
80125265117723
81130119123186
82134879128698
83140366134228
84145524139748
85150494145228
86154242150638
87157715155952
88162421161145
89167150166193
90172592171077
91177558175779
92182295180285
93185524184586
94188506188674
95191895192546
96195577196201
97199404199641
98203171202872
99206234205901
100208391208737
101210720211391
102214306213875
103217708216201
104221015218383
105223643220434
106226169222367
107228248224195
108230086225929
109232675227583
110235727229165
111238445230686
112241019232155
113243081233580
114244608234967
115245972236323
116247596237654
117249268238964
118251103240256
119252863241534
120254390242802
121255515244060
122256594245312
123258035246558
124259519247799
125260875249037
126262118250273
127263238251507
128264039252739
129264760253971
130265859255201
131267017256431
132268216257660
133269233258890
134270285260118
135271175261347
136271997262576
137273040263804
138274142265033
139275155266261
140276182267490
141277168268718
142277855269946
143278494271175
144279390272403
145280276273631
146281054274860
147281775276088
148282446277316
149283095278545
150283541279773
151284271281001
152284888282230
153285539283458
154286141284686
155286720285914
156287121287143
157287676288371
158288380289599
159288977290828
160289670292056
161290385293284
162290950294513
163291392295741
164291753296969
165292479298198
166293164299426
167293936300654
168294640301883
169295209303111
170295702304339
171296115305568
172296908306796
173297659308024
174298432309253
175299163310481
176299830311709
177300251312938
178300622314166
179300692315394
180301455316623
181302301317851
182303181319079
183303952320308
184304695321536
185305623322764
186306293323993
187307184325221
188308134326449
189309005327677
190309763328906
191310825330134
192311641331362
193312789332591
194313798333819
195314927335047
196316367336276
197317444337504
198318484338732
199319197339961
200320286341189
201321098342417
202322280343646
203323313344874
204324601346102
205325642347331
206326614348559
207327798349787
208328846351016
209330368352244
210331644353472
211332752354701
212334467355929
213335873357157
214337168358386
215338676359614
216340411360842
217342351362071
218344164363299
219347152364527
220350100365756
221352560366984
222355219368212
223358138369440
224361677370669
225365174371897
226368504373125
227371125374354
228374228375582
229378219376810
230381614378039
231385936379267
232390358380495
233394257381724
234398625382952
235403551384180
236409729385409
237416363386637
238423236387865
239429277389094
240434969390322
241439013391550
242446156392779
243453264394007
244460178395235
245467146396464
246480017397692
247502978398920
248515571400149
249nan401377
250nan402605
251nan403834
252nan405062
253nan406290
254nan407519
255nan408747

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi