SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

United Kingdom's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_voigt)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals142
# data points249
# variables4
chi-square 1.0645e+09
reduced chi-square 4344856.69
Akaike info crit. 3809.80885
Bayesian info crit. 3823.87866

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 1753111.69 68883.0 -inf inf True
center 276.300366 248.0 -inf inf True
sigma 7.50100768 1.0 0.00000000 inf True
skew -2.46469886 0.0 -inf inf True
gamma 7.50100768 1.0 -inf inf False sigma

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
02110
10111
20111
30112
41113
50114
61115
70116
80116
94117
101118
110119
121120
130121
140122
150123
160124
170125
180126
190127
200128
210129
221130
230131
240132
252133
265134
274135
288136
2912137
305138
3122139
3240141
3355142
3456143
3551144
3681145
3760146
3857148
39148149
40259150
41406152
42484153
43478154
44361155
45442157
46611158
47769160
48999161
491055162
501255164
511198165
521378167
532338168
542375170
552692171
563087173
573197174
582822176
592858178
604273179
614514181
624913183
634868184
644911186
654020188
663592190
675282192
685450193
695131195
704858197
714313199
723579201
733489203
744178205
754326207
765065209
775292211
784956214
794721216
803853218
814854220
824760222
835487225
845158227
854970229
863748232
873473234
884706237
894729239
905442242
914966245
924737247
933229250
942982253
953389256
963682258
973827261
983767264
993063267
1002157270
1012329273
1023586277
1033402280
1043307283
1052628286
1062526290
1072079293
1081838297
1092589300
1103052304
1112718308
1122574311
1132062315
1141527319
1151364323
1161624327
1171672331
1181835336
1191760340
1201527344
1211125349
1221079353
1231441358
1241484363
1251356368
1261243372
1271120377
128801383
129721388
1301099393
1311158399
1321199404
1331017410
1341052416
135890422
136822428
1371043434
1381102440
1391013447
1401027453
141986460
142687467
143639474
144896481
145886489
146778496
147721504
148671512
149649520
150446529
151730537
152617546
153651555
154602564
155579573
156401583
157555593
158704603
159597613
160693624
161715635
162565646
163442658
164361670
165726682
166685695
167772707
168704721
169569734
170493748
171413763
172793778
173751793
174773809
175731825
176667842
177421859
178371877
17970895
180763914
181846933
182880954
183771974
184743996
1859281018
1866701041
1878911065
1889501090
1898711115
1907581141
19110621169
1928161197
19311481227
19410091257
19511291289
19614401322
19710771356
19810401391
1997131428
20010891467
2018121507
20211821548
20310331592
20412881637
20510411684
2069721734
20711841786
20810481840
20915221896
21012761955
21111082017
21217152082
21314062151
21412952222
21515082298
21617352377
21719402461
21818132549
21929882642
22029482740
22124602844
22226592954
22329193071
22435393195
22534973326
22633303466
22726213616
22831033775
22939913945
23033954128
23143224323
23244224533
23338994759
23443685003
23549265267
23661785552
23766345863
23868736200
23960416568
24056926971
24140447414
24271437901
24371088438
24469149033
24569689694
2461287110430
2472296111252
2481259312173
249nan13206
250nan14368
251nan15676
252nan17149
253nan18809
254nan20676
255nan22774

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi