SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Ukraine's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals1099
# data points82
# variables5
chi-square 5149107.06
reduced chi-square 66871.5202
Akaike info crit. 915.904399
Bayesian info crit. 927.937995

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope -537.871173 218.164863 (40.56%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -8546.01733 6349.32493 (74.30%) 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 103321.827 37160.8981 (35.97%) 24822 -inf inf True
step_center 55.3554738 0.50857938 (0.92%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 57.7025167 8.53042415 (14.78%) 11.571428571428571 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_interceptstep_amplitude-0.9993
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9989
line_interceptstep_sigma-0.9984
line_slopeline_intercept0.9972
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9970
line_slopestep_sigma-0.9925
step_centerstep_sigma0.4065
line_interceptstep_center-0.3555
step_amplitudestep_center0.3475
line_slopestep_center-0.3084

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
01488
13360
23245
35143
41456
519-17
626-76
726-121
841-151
947-166
1073-167
1184-153
12113-124
13156-80
14218-21
1531153
16418143
17480247
18549366
19794500
20804648
21987812
221096990
2312511183
2413191390
2514621611
2616681846
2718922095
2822032357
2925112633
3027772921
3131023222
3233723536
3341613862
3444624199
3551064548
3654494907
3757105277
3861255657
3965926047
4071706446
4176476854
4281257269
4386177693
4490098123
4590098560
4694109004
4798669453
48104069906
491086110365
501141110827
511191311292
521233111760
531269712229
541318412701
551369113173
561419513645
571471014117
581523214588
591564815057
601602315525
611642515989
621684716450
631733016907
641785817359
651829117807
661861618248
671887618683
681923019112
691970619533
702014819947
712058020352
722098620748
732124521135
742158421512
752158421879
762238222236
772320422581
782320422915
792367223237
802434023548
812482323845
82nan24130
83nan24402
84nan24660
85nan24905
86nan25136
87nan25353
88nan25556

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi