SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Ukraine's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(split_lorentzian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals59
# data points82
# variables4
chi-square 1423632.88
reduced chi-square 18251.7036
Akaike info crit. 808.484269
Bayesian info crit. 818.111146

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 195156.363 488576.478 (250.35%) 73980.0 -inf inf True
center 34.9907584 2.63851853 (7.54%) 57.375 -inf inf True
sigma 7.12149775 2.58261759 (36.27%) 24.0 0.00000000 inf True
sigma_r 276.299235 723.394760 (261.82%) 24.0 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 283.420732 723.247391 (255.19%) 48.0 -inf inf False sigma+sigma_r
height 438.360302 28.8986394 (6.59%) 981.1902096665809 -inf inf False 2*amplitude/3.1415927/max(0.0000000, (sigma+sigma_r))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudesigma_r0.9998
centersigma0.8384
centersigma_r-0.2196
amplitudecenter-0.2139

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
0117
1218
2020
3221
4922
5523
6725
7027
81529
9631
102633
111135
122938
134342
146245
159349
1610754
176259
186966
1924573
201081
2118390
22109101
23155114
2468130
25143148
26206169
27224194
28311223
29308257
30266294
31325334
32270373
33789407
34301430
35644438
36343438
37261438
38415438
39467438
40578438
41477438
42478438
43492438
44392438
450438
46401438
47456438
48540437
49455437
50550437
51502437
52418437
53366437
54487436
55507436
56504436
57515436
58522435
59416435
60375435
61402435
62422434
63483434
64528434
65433433
66325433
67260433
68354432
69476432
70442431
71432431
72406431
73259430
74339430
750429
76798429
77822428
780428
79468428
80668427
81483427
82nan426
83nan426
84nan425
85nan424
86nan424
87nan423
88nan423

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi