SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Togo's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals6104
# data points207
# variables11
chi-square 673141.522
reduced chi-square 3434.39552
Akaike info crit. 1696.00736
Bayesian info crit. 1732.66727

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 5.0852e-06 0.0004252140558302364 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.55000077 0.5742699331219747 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.01087221 0.005852616183794032 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 3.99999989 1.8323569196809022 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 3.99999999 3.1985994843909835 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.10000004 1.673597909619778 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02398231 0.03623711303902684 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.04114604 0.03011718274662247 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 0.00497345 0.00011495965809077413 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00483092 0.004830917874396135 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 0.00108756 0.000796048883170638 -inf inf False gammaD*0.02575107296137339/(1-0.02575107296137339)
dI 0.00119632 0.0013322657468295385 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 8082359.00 8082359 -inf inf False
N0 1573.63198 21747.429638219794 0.00000000 8082359.00 True
S0 211723.633 4402.893145852289 0.00000000 4041177.50 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 0.00000000 17342.536492367504 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 207.000000 207 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
011
111
211
311
411
511
611
791
8151
9152
10182
11182
12232
13243
14253
15284
16305
17345
18346
19367
20399
214010
224111
234413
245815
256516
267018
277321
287623
297625
307628
317731
327734
338137
348140
358343
368447
378451
388454
398659
408863
418867
429072
439676
449881
459986
469991
4710997
48116102
49123108
50123114
51124120
52126126
53128132
54128138
55135145
56145152
57153158
58174165
59181172
60199180
61219187
62238195
63263202
64298210
65301218
66330226
67338234
68340242
69354250
70363259
71373267
72381276
73386285
74391294
75395303
76422312
77428321
78433330
79442340
80443349
81445359
82452368
83465378
84485388
85487398
86495408
87497418
88501428
89522438
90524448
91525459
92530469
93531479
94532490
95537501
96544511
97547522
98555533
99561543
100569554
101569565
102576576
103583587
104588598
105591609
106615621
107642632
108643643
109650654
110661666
111667677
112671688
113676700
114680711
115680723
116689734
117695746
118704757
119710769
120718781
121720792
122721804
123731816
124740827
125749839
126749851
127766863
128774874
129783886
130790898
131806910
132828922
133839933
134853945
135868957
136874969
137896981
138896993
1399271005
1409411017
1419581029
1429611040
1439761052
1449881064
14510011076
14610121088
14710281100
14810461112
14910601124
15010671136
15110701148
15210921160
15311041171
15411241183
15511301195
15611471207
15711541219
15811731231
15911901243
16012121255
16112391266
16212751278
16312771290
16412951302
16513091314
16613261325
16713261337
16813651349
16913901361
17013961372
17114001384
17214161396
17314341407
17414431419
17514571431
17614771442
17714881454
17814931466
17915131477
18015281489
18115371500
18215481512
18315551523
18415721535
18515781546
18615951558
18716081569
18816181581
18916401592
19016591604
19116661615
19216691626
19316831638
19417011649
19517071660
19617221671
19717361683
19817431694
19917491705
20017591716
20117841727
20218091738
20318181750
20418401761
20518541772
20618641783
207nan1794
208nan1805
209nan1816
210nan1827
211nan1837
212nan1848
213nan1859
214nan1870
215nan1881
216nan1892
217nan1902
218nan1913
219nan1924
220nan1934

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi