SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Togo's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals16008
# data points207
# variables11
chi-square 278203.296
reduced chi-square 1419.40457
Akaike info crit. 1513.10144
Bayesian info crit. 1549.76135

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 4.2521e-04 1.2e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.57426993 0.55 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.00585262 0.001 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 1.83235692 0.01 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 3.19859948 0.2 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.67359791 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.03623711 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.03011718 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 1.1496e-04 0.0001 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00483092 0.004830917874396135 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 7.9605e-04 0.0012014417300760913 -inf inf False gammaD*0.02575107296137339/(1-0.02575107296137339)
dI 0.00133227 0.0016820184221065277 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 8082359.00 8082359 -inf inf False
N0 21747.4296 2330.0 0.00000000 8082359.00 True
S0 4402.89315 0 0.00000000 4041177.50 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 17342.5365 2328.0 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 207.000000 207 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
011
111
212
313
414
516
617
799
81511
91514
101816
111819
122321
132424
142527
152830
163033
173437
183440
193644
203947
214051
224155
234458
245862
256566
267070
277375
287679
297683
307687
317792
327796
3381101
3481105
3583110
3684115
3784120
3884125
3986129
4088134
4188139
4290144
4396150
4498155
4599160
4699165
47109171
48116176
49123182
50123187
51124193
52126198
53128204
54128210
55135216
56145222
57153228
58174234
59181240
60199246
61219252
62238258
63263265
64298271
65301277
66330284
67338291
68340297
69354304
70363311
71373317
72381324
73386331
74391338
75395345
76422353
77428360
78433367
79442374
80443382
81445389
82452397
83465405
84485412
85487420
86495428
87497436
88501444
89522452
90524460
91525468
92530476
93531485
94532493
95537502
96544510
97547519
98555528
99561536
100569545
101569554
102576563
103583572
104588582
105591591
106615600
107642610
108643619
109650629
110661638
111667648
112671658
113676668
114680678
115680688
116689698
117695708
118704718
119710729
120718739
121720750
122721760
123731771
124740782
125749792
126749803
127766814
128774825
129783836
130790848
131806859
132828870
133839882
134853893
135868905
136874917
137896928
138896940
139927952
140941964
141958976
142961988
1439761000
1449881013
14510011025
14610121037
14710281050
14810461062
14910601075
15010671088
15110701101
15210921113
15311041126
15411241139
15511301152
15611471165
15711541179
15811731192
15911901205
16012121218
16112391232
16212751245
16312771259
16412951272
16513091286
16613261300
16713261313
16813651327
16913901341
17013961355
17114001369
17214161383
17314341397
17414431411
17514571425
17614771440
17714881454
17814931468
17915131482
18015281497
18115371511
18215481526
18315551540
18415721555
18515781569
18615951584
18716081598
18816181613
18916401628
19016591642
19116661657
19216691672
19316831687
19417011701
19517071716
19617221731
19717361746
19817431761
19917491776
20017591790
20117841805
20218091820
20318181835
20418401850
20518541865
20618641880
207nan1895
208nan1910
209nan1925
210nan1940
211nan1955
212nan1970
213nan1985
214nan2000
215nan2015
216nan2030
217nan2045
218nan2059
219nan2074
220nan2089

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi