SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Togo's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOne or more variable did not affect the fit.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals377
# data points207
# variables5
chi-square 403.669000
reduced chi-square 1.99836139
Akaike info crit. 148.250424
Bayesian info crit. 164.914018

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 1.45523741 0.66858415 (45.94%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 88.6467151 97.1998078 (109.65%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude -393.099335 304.294216 (77.41%) 48 -inf inf True
step_center 82.1333817 1.04625821 (1.27%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 161.175032 47.0975565 (29.22%) 29.428571428571427 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9997
line_interceptstep_amplitude-0.9997
line_interceptstep_sigma0.9997
step_amplitudestep_sigma-0.9989
line_slopeline_intercept0.9989
line_slopestep_sigma0.9976

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
00-4
10-4
20-3
30-3
40-2
50-2
60-2
70-1
80-1
90-1
100-0
110-0
1200
1301
1411
1511
1612
1712
1812
1922
2023
2133
2233
2333
2434
2534
2634
2734
2835
2935
3035
3135
3235
3336
3456
3556
3656
3756
3867
3967
4067
4167
4267
4367
4468
4568
4668
4778
4898
4998
5098
5199
5299
5399
5499
5599
56109
57109
58119
591110
601110
611110
621110
631110
641110
651110
661210
671210
681210
691211
701211
711211
721211
731311
741311
751311
761311
771311
781311
791311
801311
811312
821312
831312
841312
851312
861312
871312
881312
891312
901312
911312
921312
931313
941313
951313
961313
971313
981313
991313
1001313
1011313
1021313
1031413
1041414
1051414
1061414
1071414
1081414
1091414
1101414
1111414
1121414
1131515
1141515
1151515
1161515
1171515
1181515
1191515
1201516
1211516
1221516
1231516
1241516
1251516
1261517
1271517
1281517
1291517
1301517
1311617
1321618
1331718
1341718
1351818
1361819
1371819
1381819
1391819
1401919
1411920
1421920
1431920
1441921
1452121
1462221
1472221
1482322
1492322
1502522
1512623
1522623
1532623
1542623
1552724
1562724
1572725
1582725
1592725
1602726
1612726
1622726
1632727
1642727
1652727
1662728
1672728
1682729
1692729
1702730
1712830
1722830
1733031
1743131
1753132
1763232
1773233
1783333
1793434
1803634
1813735
1823735
1833736
1843736
1854037
1864037
1874038
1884139
1894139
1904140
1914140
1924141
1934141
1944142
1954443
1964443
1974644
1984644
1994745
2004846
2014846
2024847
2034848
2044848
2054849
2064850
207nan50
208nan51
209nan52
210nan53
211nan53
212nan54
213nan55

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi