SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Togo's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(split_lorentzian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals161
# data points207
# variables4
chi-square 56.9706778
reduced chi-square 0.28064373
Akaike info crit.-259.067691
Bayesian info crit.-245.736816

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 51.1314420 27.4705088 (53.73%) 916.875 -inf inf True
center 201.999328 29.5022038 (14.61%) 146.22222222222223 -inf inf True
sigma 47.9577570 18.1160478 (37.78%) 81.5 0.00000000 inf True
sigma_r 3.0537e-05 1.32836143 (4350034.73%) 81.5 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 47.9577875 17.1773965 (35.82%) 163.0 -inf inf False sigma+sigma_r
height 0.67874871 0.21616266 (31.85%) 3.580986166666354 -inf inf False 2*amplitude/3.1415927/max(0.0000000, (sigma+sigma_r))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

centersigma_r-1.0000
amplitudecenter0.9398
amplitudesigma_r-0.9398
amplitudesigma0.8465
centersigma0.7203
sigmasigma_r-0.7203

Observation

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Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi