SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Togo's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals1990
# data points207
# variables5
chi-square 276121.704
reduced chi-square 1366.93913
Akaike info crit. 1499.54679
Bayesian info crit. 1516.21038

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 80.1729106 2091.06570 (2608.19%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 253591.742 15201856.6 (5994.62%) 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude -310578.654 18325375.4 (5900.40%) 1863 -inf inf True
step_center -956.183449 31304.4226 (3273.89%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 1498.37076 44268.9239 (2954.47%) 29.428571428571427 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

step_amplitudestep_sigma-1.0000
line_interceptstep_amplitude-1.0000
line_interceptstep_sigma1.0000
line_interceptstep_center-0.9998
step_centerstep_sigma-0.9997
step_amplitudestep_center0.9997
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9997
line_slopestep_sigma0.9997
line_slopeline_intercept0.9996
line_slopestep_center-0.9988

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
01-26
11-24
21-22
31-19
41-16
51-14
61-11
79-8
815-5
915-3
10180
11183
12237
132410
142513
152816
163020
173423
183427
193630
203934
214038
224141
234445
245849
256553
267057
277361
287665
297670
307674
317778
327783
338187
348192
358396
3684101
3784106
3884111
3986116
4088121
4188126
4290131
4396136
4498141
4599147
4699152
47109157
48116163
49123168
50123174
51124180
52126186
53128191
54128197
55135203
56145209
57153215
58174222
59181228
60199234
61219241
62238247
63263254
64298260
65301267
66330273
67338280
68340287
69354294
70363301
71373308
72381315
73386322
74391330
75395337
76422344
77428352
78433359
79442367
80443374
81445382
82452390
83465398
84485406
85487414
86495422
87497430
88501438
89522446
90524455
91525463
92530471
93531480
94532489
95537497
96544506
97547515
98555524
99561533
100569542
101569551
102576560
103583569
104588578
105591587
106615597
107642606
108643616
109650625
110661635
111667645
112671655
113676664
114680674
115680684
116689694
117695705
118704715
119710725
120718735
121720746
122721756
123731767
124740777
125749788
126749799
127766809
128774820
129783831
130790842
131806853
132828864
133839876
134853887
135868898
136874910
137896921
138896933
139927944
140941956
141958968
142961979
143976991
1449881003
14510011015
14610121027
14710281039
14810461052
14910601064
15010671076
15110701089
15210921101
15311041114
15411241126
15511301139
15611471152
15711541164
15811731177
15911901190
16012121203
16112391216
16212751229
16312771243
16412951256
16513091269
16613261283
16713261296
16813651310
16913901323
17013961337
17114001351
17214161364
17314341378
17414431392
17514571406
17614771420
17714881434
17814931449
17915131463
18015281477
18115371492
18215481506
18315551521
18415721535
18515781550
18615951565
18716081579
18816181594
18916401609
19016591624
19116661639
19216691654
19316831670
19417011685
19517071700
19617221716
19717361731
19817431747
19917491762
20017591778
20117841794
20218091809
20318181825
20418401841
20518541857
20618641873
207nan1889
208nan1906
209nan1922
210nan1938
211nan1955
212nan1971
213nan1988

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi