SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Togo's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(gaussian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals25
# data points207
# variables3
chi-square 10408.4031
reduced chi-square 51.0215840
Akaike info crit. 816.953541
Bayesian info crit. 826.951698

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 3677.91924 1101.49075 (29.95%) 8541.0 -inf inf True
center 197.802416 34.6436043 (17.51%) 134.03846153846155 -inf inf True
sigma 104.049642 24.4809727 (23.53%) 73.0 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 245.018178 57.6482840 (23.53%) 171.90186 -inf inf False 2.3548200*sigma
height 14.1017070 1.33143914 (9.44%) 46.67624910000001 -inf inf False 0.3989423*amplitude/max(2.220446049250313e-16, sigma)

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudecenter0.9726
amplitudesigma0.9660
centersigma0.9344

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
012
102
202
302
402
503
603
783
863
903
1033
1103
1253
1313
1413
1533
1623
1743
1803
1923
2033
2113
2213
2333
24143
2574
2654
2734
2834
2904
3004
3114
3204
3344
3404
3524
3614
3704
3804
3924
4024
4105
4225
4365
4425
4515
4605
47105
4875
4975
5005
5115
5225
5325
5405
5575
56106
5786
58216
5976
60186
61206
62196
63256
64356
6536
66296
6786
6826
69147
7097
71107
7287
7357
7457
7547
76277
7767
7857
7997
8017
8128
8278
83138
84208
8528
8688
8728
8848
89218
9028
9118
9258
9318
9419
9559
9679
9739
9889
9969
10089
10109
10279
10379
10459
10539
1062410
1072710
108110
109710
1101110
111610
112410
113510
114410
115010
116910
117610
118911
119611
120811
121211
122111
1231011
124911
125911
126011
1271711
128811
129911
130711
1311611
1322212
1331112
1341412
1351512
136612
1372212
138012
1393112
1401412
1411712
142312
1431512
1441212
1451312
1461112
1471613
1481813
1491413
150713
151313
1522213
1531213
1542013
155613
1561713
157713
1581913
1591713
1602213
1612713
1623613
163213
1641813
1651413
1661713
167013
1683914
1692514
170614
171414
1721614
1731814
174914
1751414
1762014
1771114
178514
1792014
1801514
181914
1821114
183714
1841714
185614
1861714
1871314
1881014
1892214
1901914
191714
192314
1931414
1941814
195614
1961514
1971414
198714
199614
2001014
2012514
2022514
203914
2042214
2051414
2061014
207nan14
208nan14
209nan14
210nan14
211nan14
212nan14
213nan14

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi