SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Somalia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals271
# data points79
# variables10
chi-square 909.589906
reduced chi-square 13.1824624
Akaike info crit. 213.040133
Bayesian info crit. 236.734612

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 1.0000e-05 9.99974132261317e-06 0.00000000 1.0000e-05 True
theta 0.15998140 0.1599999072435841 0.10000000 0.16000000 True
p 0.05295669 0.026186648364157402 1.0000e-03 0.33000000 True
sigma 0.14285714 0.14285714285714285 0.00000000 inf False
rho 0.12000000 0.12 0.00000000 inf False
epsilonA 2.1090e-12 1.5407747355755674e-08 0.00000000 0.20000000 True
epsilonI 0.10000004 0.10000070616996792 0.10000000 0.40000000 True
lambda0 0.01265823 0.012658227848101266 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.14901629 0.14311141945027508 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
gammaI 0.10000000 0.1 0.00000000 inf False
gammaD 0.14460847 0.14995103781470037 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
cD 1.40000000 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
dD 0.00568362 0.005893598003662353 -inf inf False gammaD*0.03781713738630924/(1-0.03781713738630924)
dI 0.00795706 0.008251037205127295 -inf inf False cD*dD
delta 0.00227676 0.0018817328010310996 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
S0 211843.926 180421.7432009665 2506.80000 15008154.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 1253.40000 1253.3999999999999 0.00000000 inf False
E0 3.00000000 3.0 0.00000000 inf False
A0 1.20000000 1.2 0.00000000 inf False
I0 1.80000000 1.8 0.00000000 inf False
day 79.0000000 79 0.00000000 inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 0.00000000 inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 0.00000000 inf False
pop 15008154.0 15008154 0.00000000 inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
001
101
201
301
401
501
601
701
801
901
1001
1101
1201
1301
1402
1502
1602
1702
1802
1903
2003
2103
2204
2304
2415
2515
2616
2727
2827
2928
3059
31510
32511
33712
34713
35814
36815
371416
381417
391619
401820
412321
422623
432824
442826
452827
462829
473130
483232
493533
503835
513937
524438
534440
544841
555143
565245
575246
585248
595350
605352
615553
625655
635757
645958
656160
666162
676163
686165
696166
706668
716770
726771
737273
747275
757376
767878
777979
787981
79nan82
80nan84
81nan85
82nan87
83nan88
84nan90
85nan91
86nan93
87nan94
88nan96
89nan97
90nan98
91nan100
92nan101

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi