SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Somalia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals3644
# data points79
# variables10
chi-square 240140.020
reduced chi-square 3480.29015
Akaike info crit. 653.542838
Bayesian info crit. 677.237317

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 9.9997e-06 9.99984034233164e-06 0.00000000 1.0000e-05 True
theta 0.15999991 0.1599794531860973 0.10000000 0.16000000 True
p 0.02618665 0.009835812271851731 1.0000e-03 0.33000000 True
sigma 0.14285714 0.14285714285714285 0.00000000 inf False
rho 0.12000000 0.12 0.00000000 inf False
epsilonA 1.5408e-08 0.10196352197615405 0.00000000 0.20000000 True
epsilonI 0.10000071 0.10000284745242258 0.10000000 0.40000000 True
lambda0 0.01265823 0.012658227848101266 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.14311142 0.10000130870054577 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
gammaI 0.10000000 0.1 0.00000000 inf False
gammaD 0.14995104 0.10011147425709858 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
cD 1.40000000 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
dD 0.00589360 0.003934729585229248 -inf inf False gammaD*0.03781713738630924/(1-0.03781713738630924)
dI 0.00825104 0.005508621419320948 -inf inf False cD*dD
delta 0.00188173 0.0013415702026928766 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
S0 180421.743 2506.7999999999997 2506.80000 15008154.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 1253.40000 1253.3999999999999 0.00000000 inf False
E0 3.00000000 3.0 0.00000000 inf False
A0 1.20000000 1.2 0.00000000 inf False
I0 1.80000000 1.8 0.00000000 inf False
day 79.0000000 79 0.00000000 inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 0.00000000 inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 0.00000000 inf False
pop 15008154.0 15008154 0.00000000 inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
011
111
211
312
412
512
613
713
814
915
1027
1139
12311
13314
14317
15321
16525
17530
18536
19743
20750
21759
22868
23878
241289
2521101
2621114
2725129
2825144
2960161
3080179
3180198
32116218
33135240
34164263
35237287
36286312
37286339
38328367
39328396
40390426
41436458
42480490
43528524
44582559
45601596
46601633
47671671
48722710
49756751
50835792
51873834
52928877
53928920
54997964
5510541009
5610891055
5711701101
5812191147
5912841194
6012841241
6113571289
6214211336
6314551384
6415021432
6515731481
6615941529
6715941577
6815941626
6915941674
7016891722
7117111770
7217311817
7318281865
7418281912
7519161959
7619762006
7720232052
7820892098
79nan2143
80nan2188
81nan2233
82nan2277
83nan2321
84nan2364
85nan2407
86nan2449
87nan2491
88nan2532
89nan2573
90nan2613
91nan2653
92nan2692

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi