SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Somalia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals3359
# data points79
# variables5
chi-square 434.508555
reduced chi-square 5.87173722
Akaike info crit. 144.676655
Bayesian info crit. 156.523894

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope -0.42357326 0.21705530 (51.24%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 1.24987558 0.97862107 (78.30%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 115.279586 21.1865496 (18.38%) 79 -inf inf True
step_center 51.2889764 0.60769384 (1.18%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 27.8237786 3.11019224 (11.18%) 11.142857142857142 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9906
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9729
line_slopestep_sigma-0.9372
line_slopeline_intercept-0.5742
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.4920
line_interceptstep_sigma0.3345
line_interceptstep_center-0.1694
step_centerstep_sigma0.1582

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
002
101
201
301
400
500
60-0
70-0
80-1
90-1
100-1
110-1
120-1
130-1
140-1
150-1
160-1
170-1
180-1
190-1
200-1
210-1
220-0
2300
2411
2511
2612
2722
2823
2924
3055
3156
3257
3378
3479
35810
36811
371413
381414
391615
401817
412319
422620
432822
442824
452825
462827
473129
483231
493533
503835
513937
524439
534440
544842
555144
565246
575248
585250
595351
605353
615555
625656
635758
645960
656161
666162
676164
686165
696166
706667
716768
726769
737270
747271
757372
767872
777973
787973
79nan74
80nan74
81nan75
82nan75
83nan75
84nan75
85nan76

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi