SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Somalia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(split_lorentzian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals628
# data points79
# variables4
chi-square 146.635177
reduced chi-square 1.95513569
Akaike info crit. 56.8614890
Bayesian info crit. 66.3392804

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 158.807899 61.5566210 (38.76%) 438.75 -inf inf True
center 38.5477774 4.12212973 (10.69%) 58.57142857142857 -inf inf True
sigma 3.75282218 4.09885825 (109.22%) 19.5 0.00000000 inf True
sigma_r 47.0949708 25.9644924 (55.13%) 19.5 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 50.8477930 25.5168686 (50.18%) 39.0 -inf inf False sigma+sigma_r
height 1.98829175 0.36841277 (18.53%) 7.161972333332708 -inf inf False 2*amplitude/3.1415927/max(0.0000000, (sigma+sigma_r))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudesigma_r0.9383
centersigma0.8304
centersigma_r-0.3601
amplitudecenter-0.2304
sigmasigma_r-0.1872

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
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Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi