SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Somalia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals7313
# data points79
# variables5
chi-square 82538.2466
reduced chi-square 1115.38171
Akaike info crit. 559.173967
Bayesian info crit. 571.021207

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope -8.21878701 2.51079489 (30.55%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 28.4193375 13.3702504 (47.05%) 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 3046.52587 290.426022 (9.53%) 2088 -inf inf True
step_center 56.7017072 0.54963240 (0.97%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 29.7315519 1.88701617 (6.35%) 11.142857142857142 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9772
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9760
line_slopestep_sigma-0.9165
line_slopeline_intercept-0.6119
step_centerstep_sigma0.5679
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.4896
step_amplitudestep_center0.4493
line_interceptstep_sigma0.3355
line_slopestep_center-0.2658
line_interceptstep_center-0.1012

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
0139
1132
2126
3120
4114
519
613
71-2
81-6
91-10
102-14
113-17
123-19
133-21
143-22
153-23
165-23
175-21
185-20
197-17
207-13
217-8
228-2
2385
241214
252123
262134
272547
282561
296076
308093
3180111
32116131
33135153
34164176
35237201
36286227
37286255
38328285
39328317
40390350
41436385
42480421
43528459
44582498
45601539
46601581
47671624
48722668
49756713
50835760
51873807
52928855
53928903
54997952
5510541001
5610891051
5711701100
5812191150
5912841199
6012841248
6113571297
6214211345
6314551393
6415021439
6515731485
6615941530
6715941573
6815941616
6915941657
7016891697
7117111735
7217311772
7318281807
7418281841
7519161873
7619761904
7720231933
7820891960
79nan1986
80nan2010
81nan2032
82nan2052
83nan2071
84nan2089
85nan2105

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi