SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Sergipe's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals844
# data points80
# variables10
chi-square 576.968867
reduced chi-square 8.24241239
Akaike info crit. 178.060934
Bayesian info crit. 201.881200

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 9.8059e-06 9.99993594395587e-06 0.00000000 1.0000e-05 True
theta 0.15993200 0.1599999853014115 0.10000000 0.16000000 True
p 0.00202026 0.0014820685831262407 1.0000e-03 0.33000000 True
sigma 0.14285714 0.14285714285714285 0.00000000 inf False
rho 0.12000000 0.12 0.00000000 inf False
epsilonA 0.00388433 1.6401324742787438e-12 0.00000000 0.20000000 True
epsilonI 0.10646234 0.1000010545149144 0.10000000 0.40000000 True
lambda0 0.01250000 0.0125 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.10000342 0.10000000021496216 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
gammaI 0.10000000 0.1 0.00000000 inf False
gammaD 0.14999608 0.14998583973413815 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
cD 1.40000000 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
dD 0.00349442 0.0034941845366750317 -inf inf False gammaD*0.022766379880873593/(1-0.022766379880873593)
dI 0.00489219 0.004891858351345044 -inf inf False cD*dD
delta 0.00161244 0.0015646466237268508 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
S0 190725.948 195135.64668169466 9066.00000 2298696.00 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 4533.00000 4533.0 0.00000000 inf False
E0 3.00000000 3.0 0.00000000 inf False
A0 1.20000000 1.2 0.00000000 inf False
I0 1.80000000 1.8 0.00000000 inf False
day 80.0000000 80 0.00000000 inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 0.00000000 inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 0.00000000 inf False
pop 2298696.00 2298696 0.00000000 inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
001
101
201
301
401
501
601
701
801
901
1001
1101
1201
1301
1401
1501
1601
1701
1821
1921
2021
2131
2241
2341
2442
2542
2642
2742
2842
2942
3042
3142
3243
3343
3453
3554
3654
3754
3875
3985
4086
4196
4297
43108
44119
451210
461211
471412
481413
491415
501716
512118
522320
532522
542824
553327
563430
573733
583736
594240
604744
615048
625353
635758
645963
656368
666974
677680
688287
698693
7093100
71103108
72116115
73127123
74135131
75142139
76149147
77158155
78166163
79172171
80nan180
81nan188
82nan196
83nan204
84nan212
85nan220
86nan227
87nan235
88nan242
89nan249
90nan256
91nan262
92nan268
93nan275

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi