SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Sergipe's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals8682
# data points80
# variables10
chi-square 912504.623
reduced chi-square 13035.7803
Akaike info crit. 767.353744
Bayesian info crit. 791.174010

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 9.9999e-06 9.902526077773325e-06 0.00000000 1.0000e-05 True
theta 0.15999999 0.15999999999863931 0.10000000 0.16000000 True
p 0.00148207 0.0031654366729127648 1.0000e-03 0.33000000 True
sigma 0.14285714 0.14285714285714285 0.00000000 inf False
rho 0.12000000 0.12 0.00000000 inf False
epsilonA 1.6401e-12 8.16924949909037e-10 0.00000000 0.20000000 True
epsilonI 0.10000105 0.10000000003209156 0.10000000 0.40000000 True
lambda0 0.01250000 0.0125 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.10000000 0.10000000006797298 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
gammaI 0.10000000 0.1 0.00000000 inf False
gammaD 0.14998584 0.14999830525316868 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
cD 1.40000000 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
dD 0.00349418 0.003494474942915483 -inf inf False gammaD*0.022766379880873593/(1-0.022766379880873593)
dI 0.00489186 0.004892264920081676 -inf inf False cD*dD
delta 0.00156465 0.0009345751737070973 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
S0 195135.647 9066.0 9066.00000 2298696.00 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 4533.00000 4533.0 0.00000000 inf False
E0 3.00000000 3.0 0.00000000 inf False
A0 1.20000000 1.2 0.00000000 inf False
I0 1.80000000 1.8 0.00000000 inf False
day 80.0000000 80 0.00000000 inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 0.00000000 inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 0.00000000 inf False
pop 2298696.00 2298696 0.00000000 inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
011
111
241
351
462
562
6102
7103
8103
9153
10164
11165
12165
13166
14167
15169
161910
172012
182314
192516
202718
213221
223225
233629
243633
253938
264244
274251
284458
294467
304576
314687
3248100
3353114
3471130
3583148
3686169
3792192
38117218
39124247
40144280
41153318
42159359
43197406
44280458
45337517
46447582
47517655
48601736
49730825
50772923
518981032
529981152
5312141282
5414381424
5515881579
5617711746
5718001926
5820322119
5922682325
6024942543
6128682773
6231353014
6333433266
6435663528
6539673797
6642774073
6747344355
6849224640
6951314927
7053145215
7154485501
7257355785
7359126065
7461566339
7564626606
7668056866
7769997117
7872337359
7975557591
80nan7813
81nan8024
82nan8224
83nan8414
84nan8593
85nan8761
86nan8919
87nan9068
88nan9206
89nan9335
90nan9455
91nan9567
92nan9671
93nan9767

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi