SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Sergipe's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals1031
# data points80
# variables5
chi-square 312.910663
reduced chi-square 4.17214218
Akaike info crit. 119.111288
Bayesian info crit. 131.021421

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 0.13743907 0.03659710 (26.63%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -1.02116990 0.70869501 (69.40%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 675.229614 179.608625 (26.60%) 172 -inf inf True
step_center 94.0899844 5.34793423 (5.68%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 29.2322894 2.69240735 (9.21%) 11.285714285714286 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

step_amplitudestep_center0.9992
step_centerstep_sigma0.9906
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9864
line_slopeline_intercept-0.8645
line_slopestep_sigma-0.7468
line_slopestep_center-0.6722
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.6689
line_interceptstep_sigma0.4789
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.4181
line_interceptstep_center0.4167

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
00-1
10-1
20-1
30-1
40-0
50-0
60-0
70-0
800
900
1000
1101
1201
1301
1401
1501
1601
1701
1822
1922
2022
2132
2242
2342
2443
2543
2643
2743
2843
2944
3044
3144
3244
3345
3455
3555
3656
3756
3876
3987
4087
4198
4299
43109
441110
451211
461212
471413
481414
491416
501717
512119
522320
532522
542824
553326
563429
573731
583734
594237
604741
615044
625348
635752
645957
656362
666967
677672
688278
698684
709391
7110398
72116105
73127113
74135121
75142129
76149138
77158147
78166157
79172167
80nan177
81nan188
82nan199
83nan210
84nan222
85nan234
86nan246

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi