SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Sergipe's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals2348
# data points80
# variables5
chi-square 339050.957
reduced chi-square 4520.67943
Akaike info crit. 678.150325
Bayesian info crit. 690.060458

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 0.16595297 0.97858180 (589.67%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 14.0062145 22.0729710 (157.59%) 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 8744.80212 196.188436 (2.24%) 7554 -inf inf True
step_center 67.7321100 0.30334849 (0.45%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 17.5022335 0.41991828 (2.40%) 11.285714285714286 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9545
line_slopeline_intercept-0.8714
step_amplitudestep_center0.8648
step_centerstep_sigma0.8345
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.6863
line_slopestep_sigma-0.6371
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.4799
line_interceptstep_sigma0.4068
line_slopestep_center-0.2688
line_interceptstep_center0.1506

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
0114
1114
2414
3515
4615
5615
61015
71015
81015
91516
101616
111616
121616
131616
141616
151617
161917
172017
182317
192518
202718
213218
223219
233619
243620
253921
264222
274223
284424
294426
304529
314632
324836
335341
347148
358356
368665
379277
3811792
39124109
40144130
41153155
42159185
43197221
44280262
45337311
46447367
47517432
48601507
49730591
50772687
51898794
52998913
5312141045
5414381191
5515881351
5617711524
5718001711
5820321911
5922682125
6024942351
6128682588
6231352837
6333433095
6435663361
6539673633
6642773911
6747344191
6849224473
6951314755
7053145034
7154485309
7257355578
7359125840
7461566093
7564626336
7668056567
7769996787
7872336993
7975557187
80nan7366
81nan7532
82nan7684
83nan7822
84nan7948
85nan8061
86nan8161

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi