SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Russia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals303
# data points249
# variables11
chi-square 4.6389e+13
reduced chi-square 1.9491e+11
Akaike info crit. 6483.70744
Bayesian info crit. 6522.39943

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 0.99999896 3.653942837911206e-06 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.55081771 0.5723180697940701 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.60537640 0.04913545522832455 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 0.02358220 2.248793436650836 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 0.30749360 0.6654949046262837 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.69999718 1.6999667720289366 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.07142856 0.07138440176752493 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.02380972 0.07142712785467242 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 5.2171e-04 1.0169554051642216e-06 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00401606 0.004016064257028112 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 4.2453e-04 0.0012735633849150626 -inf inf False gammaD*0.01751789925515279/(1-0.01751789925515279)
dI 7.2171e-04 0.002165015436428305 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 1.4587e+08 145872260 -inf inf False
N0 1.3609e+08 6625380.548562349 0.00000000 1.4587e+08 True
S0 60688437.4 458511.85159212956 0.00000000 72936126.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 2.00000000 2 -inf inf False
D0 2.00000000 2 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 75397656.0 6166864.696970219 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 249.000000 249 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
021
12186
22803
321964
423695
525979
628767
7212001
8215619
9219558
10223761
11228176
12232756
13237461
14242256
15247110
16251998
17256900
18261796
19266671
20271514
21276313
22281061
23285749
24290374
25294929
26299412
272103820
282108151
292112402
302116574
313120666
324124677
334128608
344132458
3510136228
3610139918
3710143530
3810147064
3910150522
4025153903
4130157211
4245160444
4359163605
4463166696
4593169716
46114172668
47147175552
48199178371
49253181125
50306183815
51367186444
52438189011
53495191519
54658193969
55840196362
561036198698
571264200980
581534203209
591836205385
602337207510
612777209586
623548211612
634149213590
644731215522
655389217409
666343219250
677497221048
688672222804
6910131224518
7011917226191
7113584227825
7215770229419
7318328230976
7421102232496
7524490233980
7627938235429
7732008236843
7836793238223
7942853239571
8047121240887
8152763242171
8257999243424
8362773244648
8468622245843
8574588247009
8680949248147
8787147249259
8893558250343
8999399251402
90106498252436
91114431253445
92124054254430
93134687255391
94145268256329
95155370257245
96165929258140
97177160259012
98187859259864
99198676260696
100209688261508
101221344262300
102232243263074
103242271263829
104252245264566
105262843265286
106272043265988
107281752266674
108290678267343
109299941267996
110308705268634
111317554269256
112326448269864
113335882270457
114344481271036
115353427271601
116362342272152
117370680272691
118379051273216
119387623273729
120396575274230
121405843274719
122414878275196
123423741275662
124432277276117
125441108276561
126449834276994
127458689277417
128467673277830
129476658278233
130485253278626
131493657279010
132502436279385
133511423279751
134520129280108
135528964280457
136537210280797
137545458281130
138553301281454
139561091281771
140569063282080
141576952282381
142584680282676
143592280282963
144599705283244
145606881283518
146613994283786
147620794284047
148627646284302
149634437284550
150641156284793
151647849285030
152654405285262
153661165285488
154667883285708
155674515285924
156681251286134
157687862286339
158694230286540
159700792286735
160707301286926
161713936287112
162720547287294
163727162287472
164733699287645
165739947287815
166746369287980
167752797288141
168759203288299
169765437288453
170771546288603
171777486288749
172783328288893
173789190289032
174795038289169
175800849289302
176806720289432
177812485289559
178818120289683
179823515289804
180828990289922
181834499290037
182839981290150
183845443290260
184850870290367
185856264290472
186861423290574
187867343290674
188871894290771
189877135290867
190882347290960
191887536291050
192892654291139
193897599291225
194902701291310
195907758291392
196912823291473
197917884291552
198922853291628
199927745291703
200932493291777
201937321291848
202942106291918
203946976291986
204951897292053
205956749292118
206961493292181
207966189292243
208970865292304
209975576292363
210980405292420
211985346292477
212990326292532
213995319292586
2141000048292638
2151005000292689
2161009995292739
2171015105292788
2181020310292836
2191025505292882
2201030690292928
2211035789292972
2221041007293016
2231046370293058
2241051874293100
2251057362293140
2261062811293180
2271068320293218
2281073849293256
2291079519293293
2301085281293329
2311091186293364
2321097251293398
2331103399293432
2341109595293464
2351115810293496
2361122241293528
2371128836293558
2381136048293588
2391143571293617
2401151438293645
2411159573293673
2421167805293700
2431176286293727
2441185231293753
2451194643293778
2461204502293803
2471215001293827
2481225889293850
249nan293873
250nan293896
251nan293918
252nan293940
253nan293961
254nan293981
255nan294001
256nan294021
257nan294040
258nan294059
259nan294077
260nan294095
261nan294112
262nan294129

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi