SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Russia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals11556
# data points249
# variables11
chi-square 2.3000e+10
reduced chi-square 96640550.9
Akaike info crit. 4588.99037
Bayesian info crit. 4627.68235

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 3.6539e-06 1.2e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.57231807 0.55 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.04913546 0.001 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 2.24879344 0.01 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 0.66549490 0.2 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.69996677 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.07138440 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.07142713 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 1.0170e-06 0.0001 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00401606 0.004016064257028112 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 0.00127356 0.0008104658063061071 -inf inf False gammaD*0.01751789925515279/(1-0.01751789925515279)
dI 0.00216502 0.00113465212882855 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 1.4587e+08 145872260 -inf inf False
N0 6625380.55 1532361.25 0.00000000 1.4587e+08 True
S0 458511.852 0 0.00000000 72936126.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 2.00000000 2 -inf inf False
D0 2.00000000 2 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 6166864.70 1532357.25 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 249.000000 249 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
022
123
225
328
4212
5217
6224
7232
8241
9251
10264
11278
12294
132112
142133
152155
162181
172209
182240
192275
202313
212355
222401
232452
242507
252568
262634
272707
282786
292873
302967
3131069
3241181
3341303
3441435
35101579
36101735
37101905
38102089
39102289
40252506
41302742
42452998
43593275
44633576
45933902
461144255
471474637
481995051
492535500
503065985
513676511
524387079
534957694
546588359
558409077
5610369854
57126410692
58153411598
59183612575
60233713629
61277714767
62354815992
63414917312
64473118734
65538920264
66634321910
67749723678
68867225577
691013127615
701191729801
711358432143
721577034650
731832837331
742110240195
752449043251
762793846509
773200849978
783679353667
794285357584
804712161737
815276366136
825799970785
836277375693
846862280865
857458886305
868094992017
878714798004
8893558104266
8999399110804
90106498117616
91114431124699
92124054132049
93134687139658
94145268147520
95155370155626
96165929163964
97177160172524
98187859181293
99198676190255
100209688199398
101221344208704
102232243218157
103242271227742
104252245237441
105262843247237
106272043257114
107281752267055
108290678277044
109299941287065
110308705297104
111317554307147
112326448317179
113335882327190
114344481337166
115353427347098
116362342356977
117370680366793
118379051376538
119387623386207
120396575395794
121405843405292
122414878414699
123423741424010
124432277433223
125441108442336
126449834451347
127458689460255
128467673469060
129476658477763
130485253486362
131493657494860
132502436503257
133511423511554
134520129519753
135528964527856
136537210535865
137545458543781
138553301551608
139561091559346
140569063567000
141576952574570
142584680582059
143592280589471
144599705596806
145606881604069
146613994611260
147620794618383
148627646625440
149634437632432
150641156639363
151647849646235
152654405653049
153661165659808
154667883666514
155674515673168
156681251679773
157687862686330
158694230692842
159700792699310
160707301705735
161713936712119
162720547718463
163727162724770
164733699731040
165739947737274
166746369743475
167752797749642
168759203755778
169765437761882
170771546767957
171777486774003
172783328780022
173789190786013
174795038791978
175800849797917
176806720803831
177812485809721
178818120815588
179823515821431
180828990827252
181834499833051
182839981838829
183845443844585
184850870850321
185856264856036
186861423861731
187867343867407
188871894873063
189877135878700
190882347884318
191887536889917
192892654895497
193897599901059
194902701906603
195907758912128
196912823917636
197917884923126
198922853928597
199927745934051
200932493939487
201937321944906
202942106950306
203946976955689
204951897961055
205956749966402
206961493971733
207966189977045
208970865982340
209975576987617
210980405992877
211985346998118
2129903261003343
2139953191008549
21410000481013738
21510050001018908
21610099951024061
21710151051029196
21810203101034314
21910255051039413
22010306901044494
22110357891049557
22210410071054603
22310463701059630
22410518741064639
22510573621069630
22610628111074603
22710683201079558
22810738491084494
22910795191089413
23010852811094313
23110911861099195
23210972511104059
23311033991108904
23411095951113731
23511158101118540
23611222411123331
23711288361128104
23811360481132858
23911435711137594
24011514381142312
24111595731147012
24211678051151693
24311762861156357
24411852311161002
24511946431165629
24612045021170238
24712150011174829
24812258891179402
249nan1183956
250nan1188493
251nan1193012
252nan1197513
253nan1201996
254nan1206462
255nan1210909
256nan1215339
257nan1219751
258nan1224145
259nan1228522
260nan1232881
261nan1237223
262nan1241548

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi