SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Russia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals140
# data points249
# variables5
chi-square 44056726.6
reduced chi-square 180560.355
Akaike info crit. 3018.80039
Bayesian info crit. 3036.38766

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 133.498334 0.85631749 (0.64%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 273.948712 343.588245 (125.42%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude -11515.1017 427.995534 (3.72%) 21475 -inf inf True
step_center 40.9928610 1.32151624 (3.22%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 40.7433397 2.05288734 (5.04%) 35.42857142857143 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_interceptstep_amplitude-0.9412
line_interceptstep_center-0.9217
step_amplitudestep_sigma-0.9170
line_interceptstep_sigma0.8765
step_amplitudestep_center0.7809
step_centerstep_sigma-0.7410
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.6349
line_slopestep_sigma0.5377
line_slopeline_intercept0.3480

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
00-617
10-543
20-472
30-404
40-339
50-277
60-218
70-162
80-110
90-61
100-15
11028
12067
130102
140135
150164
160189
170212
180231
190247
200260
210269
220276
230280
240281
250279
260274
270267
280258
290246
300233
310217
320199
330180
340160
350138
360115
37090
38066
39040
40015
410-11
420-37
430-63
440-88
450-113
460-137
470-160
480-182
490-203
500-222
510-239
520-255
530-269
540-280
552-290
564-297
575-301
588-303
5910-302
6017-298
6124-292
6230-282
6334-269
6443-253
6545-234
6647-211
6758-186
6863-157
6976-124
7094-88
71106-49
72130-7
7314839
7417088
75198141
76232196
77273255
78313317
79361382
80405451
81456522
82513596
83555673
84615753
85681835
86747920
877951008
888671098
899721191
9010731286
9111691383
9212221482
9312801583
9413561686
9514511792
9615371898
9716252007
9817232117
9918272229
10019152342
10120092457
10221162573
10322122690
10423052808
10524182928
10625373048
10726313170
10827223292
10928373415
11029723539
11130993664
11232493790
11333883916
11435414043
11536334170
11638074298
11739684426
11841424555
11943744684
12045554814
12146934944
12248555074
12350375205
12452155335
12553845467
12655285598
12757255729
12858595861
12959715993
13061416125
13163586257
13265326390
13367156522
13468296655
13569486787
13670916920
13772847053
13874787186
13977907319
14079727452
14180027585
14281117718
14382067851
14483597985
14585138118
14686058251
14787818384
14889698518
14990738651
15091668784
15193208918
15295369051
15396839185
15498599318
155100279452
156101619585
157102969718
158104949852
159106679985
1601084310119
1611101710252
1621120510386
1631133510519
1641143910653
1651161410786
1661177010920
1671193711053
1681212311187
1691224711320
1701234211454
1711242711587
1721258011721
1731274511854
1741289211988
1751304612121
1761319212255
1771326912388
1781335412522
1791350412655
1801367312789
1811380212922
1821396313056
1831405813189
1841412813323
1851420713456
1861435113590
1871453213723
1881460613857
1891472513990
1901485414124
1911493114257
1921506114391
1931513114524
1941526014658
1951538414791
1961549814925
1971561715058
1981568515192
1991574015325
2001587215459
2011598915592
2021609915726
2031618915859
2041631015993
2051638316126
2061644816260
2071656816393
2081668316527
2091680416660
2101691416793
2111702516927
2121709317060
2131717617194
2141729917327
2151741417461
2161752817594
2171764917728
2181775917861
2191782017995
2201787118128
2211799318262
2221815318395
2231826318529
2241836518662
2251848418796
2261857818929
2271863519063
2281878519196
2291891719330
2301906119463
2311919519597
2321933919730
2331941819864
2341948919997
2351964920131
2361979920264
2371994820398
2382005620531
2392022520665
2402032420798
2412038520932
2422054521065
2432072221199
2442089121332
2452107721466
2462125121599
2472135821733
2482147521866
249nan22000
250nan22133
251nan22267
252nan22400
253nan22534
254nan22667
255nan22801

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi