SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Russia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_voigt)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals94
# data points249
# variables4
chi-square 233396.775
reduced chi-square 952.639899
Akaike info crit. 1711.91753
Bayesian info crit. 1725.98734

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 42316.2361 3208.18503 (7.58%) 60840.0 -inf inf True
center 92.8810324 1.84873790 (1.99%) 163.4418604651163 -inf inf True
sigma 111.821171 11.5257656 (10.31%) 65.0 0.00000000 inf True
skew 6.34456380 1.30539354 (20.57%) 0.0 -inf inf True
gamma 111.821171 11.5257657 (10.31%) 65.0 -inf inf False sigma

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudesigma0.9654
sigmaskew0.7708
amplitudeskew0.6938
centersigma-0.5501
amplitudecenter-0.4939
centerskew-0.4656

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
4100
4200
4300
4400
4500
4601
4701
4801
4901
5001
5101
5202
5302
5402
5522
5623
5713
5834
5924
6075
6175
6266
6347
6498
6529
66210
671111
68512
691314
701815
711217
722418
731820
742222
752824
763427
774129
784031
794834
804437
815139
825742
834245
846048
856652
866655
874858
887262
8910565
9010169
919672
925376
935879
947683
959587
968690
978894
989897
99104100
10088104
10194107
102107110
10396113
10493116
105113119
106119121
10794124
10891127
109115129
110135131
111127133
112150135
113139137
114153139
11592140
116174142
117161143
118174144
119232145
120181146
121138147
122162148
123182148
124178149
125169150
126144150
127197150
128134151
129112151
130170151
131217151
132174151
133183151
134114151
135119151
136143151
137193151
138194151
139312151
140182151
14130151
142109151
14395150
144153150
145154150
14692150
147176149
148188149
149104149
15093148
151154148
152216148
153147148
154176147
155168147
156134147
157135146
158198146
159173145
160176145
161174145
162188144
163130144
164104144
165175143
166156143
167167143
168186142
169124142
17095141
17185141
172153141
173165140
174147140
175154139
176146139
17777138
17885138
179150138
180169137
181129137
182161136
18395136
18470135
18579135
186144134
187181134
18874134
189119133
190129133
19177132
192130132
19370131
194129131
195124130
196114130
197119129
19868129
19955128
200132128
201117127
202110127
20390126
204121126
20573125
20665125
207120124
208115124
209121123
210110123
211111122
21268122
21383121
214123121
215115120
216114120
217121119
218110119
21961118
22051118
221122117
222160117
223110116
224102116
225119115
22694114
22757114
228150113
229132113
230144112
231134112
232144111
23379111
23471110
235160110
236150109
237149109
238108108
239169108
24099107
24161107
242160106
243177105
244169105
245186104
246174104
247107103
248117103
249nan102
250nan102
251nan101
252nan101
253nan100
254nan100
255nan99

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi