SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Russia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals169
# data points249
# variables5
chi-square 3.3486e+11
reduced chi-square 1.3724e+09
Akaike info crit. 5243.86302
Bayesian info crit. 5261.45029

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 6859.64336 56.6312149 (0.83%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -16764.6975 23679.3342 (141.25%) 2 -inf inf True
step_amplitude -434411.578 27814.0995 (6.40%) 1225887 -inf inf True
step_center 33.8387789 1.84593462 (5.46%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 27.6905610 2.98100073 (10.77%) 35.42857142857143 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_interceptstep_amplitude-0.9421
line_interceptstep_center-0.8879
step_amplitudestep_sigma-0.8687
line_interceptstep_sigma0.8291
step_amplitudestep_center0.7545
step_centerstep_sigma-0.6742
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.5318
line_slopestep_sigma0.4226
line_slopeline_intercept0.2344

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
02-34999
12-30217
22-25621
32-21220
42-17026
52-13047
62-9293
72-5773
82-2495
92533
1023305
1125814
1228057
13210029
14211728
15213153
16214304
17215184
18215795
19216142
20216233
21216075
22215678
23215054
24214215
25213175
26211952
27210562
2829023
2927355
3025580
3133717
3241789
334-180
344-2170
3510-4155
3610-6114
3710-8023
3810-9860
3910-11603
4025-13231
4130-14724
4245-16063
4359-17228
4463-18205
4593-18976
46114-19529
47147-19850
48199-19929
49253-19756
50306-19324
51367-18627
52438-17660
53495-16420
54658-14907
55840-13120
561036-11060
571264-8731
581534-6136
591836-3281
602337-172
6127773185
6235486781
63414910609
64473114658
65538918920
66634323385
67749728042
68867232882
691013137894
701191743068
711358448393
721577053860
731832859460
742110265181
752449071016
762793876955
773200882990
783679389112
794285395315
8047121101591
8152763107933
8257999114335
8362773120791
8468622127295
8574588133843
8680949140430
8787147147052
8893558153704
8999399160384
90106498167088
91114431173813
92124054180557
93134687187317
94145268194091
95155370200878
96165929207675
97177160214482
98187859221297
99198676228118
100209688234946
101221344241779
102232243248616
103242271255457
104252245262300
105262843269147
106272043275996
107281752282846
108290678289698
109299941296552
110308705303406
111317554310262
112326448317118
113335882323975
114344481330832
115353427337690
116362342344548
117370680351407
118379051358265
119387623365124
120396575371983
121405843378842
122414878385702
123423741392561
124432277399420
125441108406280
126449834413139
127458689419999
128467673426858
129476658433718
130485253440578
131493657447437
132502436454297
133511423461156
134520129468016
135528964474876
136537210481735
137545458488595
138553301495455
139561091502314
140569063509174
141576952516033
142584680522893
143592280529753
144599705536612
145606881543472
146613994550332
147620794557191
148627646564051
149634437570911
150641156577770
151647849584630
152654405591490
153661165598349
154667883605209
155674515612068
156681251618928
157687862625788
158694230632647
159700792639507
160707301646367
161713936653226
162720547660086
163727162666946
164733699673805
165739947680665
166746369687525
167752797694384
168759203701244
169765437708103
170771546714963
171777486721823
172783328728682
173789190735542
174795038742402
175800849749261
176806720756121
177812485762981
178818120769840
179823515776700
180828990783560
181834499790419
182839981797279
183845443804138
184850870810998
185856264817858
186861423824717
187867343831577
188871894838437
189877135845296
190882347852156
191887536859016
192892654865875
193897599872735
194902701879595
195907758886454
196912823893314
197917884900173
198922853907033
199927745913893
200932493920752
201937321927612
202942106934472
203946976941331
204951897948191
205956749955051
206961493961910
207966189968770
208970865975630
209975576982489
210980405989349
211985346996208
2129903261003068
2139953191009928
21410000481016787
21510050001023647
21610099951030507
21710151051037366
21810203101044226
21910255051051086
22010306901057945
22110357891064805
22210410071071665
22310463701078524
22410518741085384
22510573621092243
22610628111099103
22710683201105963
22810738491112822
22910795191119682
23010852811126542
23110911861133401
23210972511140261
23311033991147121
23411095951153980
23511158101160840
23611222411167700
23711288361174559
23811360481181419
23911435711188278
24011514381195138
24111595731201998
24211678051208857
24311762861215717
24411852311222577
24511946431229436
24612045021236296
24712150011243156
24812258891250015
249nan1256875
250nan1263735
251nan1270594
252nan1277454
253nan1284313
254nan1291173
255nan1298033

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi