SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Russia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(split_lorentzian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals46
# data points249
# variables4
chi-square 3.9142e+08
reduced chi-square 1597652.32
Akaike info crit. 3560.69493
Bayesian info crit. 3574.76474

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 2435501.72 93044.5129 (3.82%) 3693495.0 -inf inf True
center 93.1343621 1.46937227 (1.58%) 148.25 -inf inf True
sigma 11.1893236 1.46901583 (13.13%) 84.5 0.00000000 inf True
sigma_r 166.602879 9.06947427 (5.44%) 84.5 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 177.792203 8.93247481 (5.02%) 169.0 -inf inf False sigma+sigma_r
height 8720.79036 174.577276 (2.00%) 13913.32491955434 -inf inf False 2*amplitude/3.1415927/max(0.0000000, (sigma+sigma_r))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudesigma_r0.9262
centersigma0.8354
centersigma_r-0.3304
amplitudecenter-0.1986
sigmasigma_r-0.1735

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
02124
10127
20130
30132
40135
50138
60141
70145
80148
90152
100155
110159
120163
130167
140171
150175
160180
170184
180189
190194
200199
210205
220211
230216
240223
250229
260236
270243
280250
290258
300266
311274
321283
330292
340301
356312
360322
370333
380345
390357
4015370
415384
4215398
4314414
444430
4530447
4621465
4733484
4852505
4954527
5053550
5161575
5271601
5357629
54163659
55182691
56196726
57228763
58270803
59302846
60501893
61440943
62771998
636011057
645821121
656581191
669541267
6711541351
6811751442
6914591543
7017861653
7116671775
7221861909
7325582058
7427742222
7533882405
7634482607
7740702832
7847853082
7960603360
8042683667
8156424008
8252364382
8347744791
8458495233
8559665705
8663616200
8761986705
8864117204
8958417673
9070998086
9179338415
9296238632
93106338720
94105818721
95101028720
96105598718
97112318716
98106998713
99108178710
100110128706
101116568701
102108998696
103100288690
10499748684
105105988677
10692008669
10797098661
10889268652
10992638642
11087648632
11188498622
11288948610
11394348599
11485998586
11589468573
11689158560
11783388545
11883718531
11985728516
12089528500
12192688483
12290358467
12388638449
12485368431
12588318413
12687268394
12788558375
12889848355
12989858335
13085958314
13184048292
13287798271
13389878249
13487068226
13588358203
13682468179
13782488155
13878438131
13977908106
14079728081
14178898056
14277288030
14376008004
14474257977
14571767950
14671137923
14768007895
14868527868
14967917839
15067197811
15166937782
15265567753
15367607724
15467187694
15566327664
15667367634
15766117603
15863687573
15965627542
16065097511
16166357480
16266117448
16366157417
16465377385
16562487353
16664227320
16764287288
16864067256
16962347223
17061097190
17159407157
17258427124
17358627091
17458487058
17558117025
17658716991
17757656958
17856356924
17953956890
18054756857
18155096823
18254826789
18354626755
18454276721
18553946687
18651596654
18759206620
18845516586
18952416552
19052126518
19151896484
19251186450
19349456416
19451026382
19550576348
19650656314
19750616280
19849696246
19948926212
20047486179
20148286145
20247856111
20348706078
20449216044
20548526011
20647445977
20746965944
20846765911
20947115878
21048295845
21149415812
21249805779
21349935746
21447295714
21549525681
21649955649
21751105616
21852055584
21951955552
22051855520
22150995488
22252185456
22353635425
22455045393
22554885362
22654495331
22755095299
22855295268
22956705238
23057625207
23159055176
23260655146
23361485115
23461965085
23562155055
23664315025
23765954996
23872124966
23975234937
24078674907
24181354878
24282324849
24384814820
24489454792
24594124763
24698594735
247104994706
248108884678
249nan4650
250nan4623
251nan4595
252nan4568
253nan4540
254nan4513
255nan4486

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi