SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Rondonia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(split_lorentzian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals99
# data points75
# variables4
chi-square 283.923260
reduced chi-square 3.99891916
Akaike info crit. 107.841191
Bayesian info crit. 117.111143

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 4229.23144 709107.338 (16766.81%) 414.375 -inf inf True
center 63.2649415 4.07002901 (6.43%) 65.0 -inf inf True
sigma 11.8084151 3.47439270 (29.42%) 8.5 0.00000000 inf True
sigma_r 421.801326 72737.0993 (17244.40%) 8.5 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 433.609741 72736.7599 (16774.71%) 17.0 -inf inf False sigma+sigma_r
height 6.20929851 0.72713907 (11.71%) 15.517606722220865 -inf inf False 2*amplitude/3.1415927/max(0.0000000, (sigma+sigma_r))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudesigma_r1.0000
centersigma0.7838
centersigma_r-0.3859
amplitudecenter-0.3856

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1110
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2010
2100
2200
2300
2401
2501
2601
2711
2801
2901
3011
3101
3201
3311
3401
3501
3621
3731
3801
3911
4041
4111
4221
4352
4412
4512
4642
4742
4842
4923
5023
5123
5243
5334
5404
5564
5665
5775
5855
5935
60106
6136
62116
6356
6496
6566
6606
67126
6846
6956
7036
7166
7256
7336
74136
75nan6
76nan6
77nan6
78nan6
79nan6
80nan6
81nan6

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi