SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Rondonia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals10590
# data points75
# variables5
chi-square 224639.391
reduced chi-square 3209.13416
Akaike info crit. 610.357268
Bayesian info crit. 621.944709

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope -12.8735039 6.43519849 (49.99%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -71.1019145 89.9133827 (126.46%) 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 1.0765e+09 2.5455e+10 (2364.68%) 5476 -inf inf True
step_center 470.929412 909.302719 (193.09%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 128.011335 143.571575 (112.16%) 10.571428571428571 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

step_amplitudestep_center0.9999
step_centerstep_sigma0.9999
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9997
line_interceptstep_sigma-0.9836
line_interceptstep_center-0.9834
line_interceptstep_amplitude-0.9830
line_slopestep_sigma-0.9476
line_slopestep_center-0.9434
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9395
line_slopeline_intercept0.9173

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
0135
1128
2322
3317
4311
557
652
76-1
86-5
96-7
106-9
118-11
129-12
1310-12
1410-11
1511-10
1612-7
1714-4
1818-0
19185
202811
213218
223326
233535
244246
256458
266971
277686
2892102
29110120
30128140
31160161
32199184
33223210
34250237
35290267
36328299
37364333
38393370
39413410
40433452
41502498
42585546
43653598
44705654
45756713
46861776
47943843
481098914
491222989
5012631070
5113021155
5213961245
5314601341
5416121443
5516861550
5617891664
5719191784
5819631911
5920432046
6022572188
6124992338
6226592496
6327742663
6431092839
6532013025
6632683221
6734933428
6838623646
6942523875
7045024116
7147434371
7249424638
7351724920
7454775216
75nan5528
76nan5855
77nan6200
78nan6562
79nan6942
80nan7342
81nan7762

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi