SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Rondonia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(pearson7)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals93
# data points75
# variables4
chi-square 154884.969
reduced chi-square 2181.47844
Akaike info crit. 580.471241
Bayesian info crit. 589.741193

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 11807.5948 3431.17368 (29.06%) 8190.0 -inf inf True
center 75.9336843 6.94776787 (9.15%) 69.0909090909091 -inf inf True
sigma 22.2757197 17.5042242 (78.58%) 7.0 0.00000000 inf True
expon 1.55674918 1.19420745 (76.71%) 1.5 -inf 100.000000 True
fwhm 33.3655776 11.1071298 (33.29%) 10.729893111572318 -inf inf False sqrt(2**(1/expon)-1)*2*sigma
height 274.124797 40.4176813 (14.74%) 585.0 -inf inf False amplitude * gamfcn(expon)/max(2.220446049250313e-16, (gamfcn(0.5)*gamfcn(expon-0.5)*sigma))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

sigmaexpon0.9807
amplitudecenter0.9316
centersigma0.8827
centerexpon0.8014
amplitudesigma0.7057
amplitudeexpon0.5734

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
015
106
226
306
406
526
607
717
807
908
1008
1128
1219
1319
1409
15110
16110
17211
18411
19012
201012
21413
22114
23214
24715
252216
26517
27718
281619
291820
301821
313222
323923
332425
342726
354028
363829
373631
382933
392035
402037
416940
428342
436845
445248
455151
4610555
478259
4815563
4912467
504172
513977
529483
536489
5415295
5574102
56103110
57130118
5844126
5980135
60214144
61242154
62160164
63115174
64335185
6592196
6667207
67225217
68369228
69390237
70250246
71241254
72199261
73230267
74305271
75nan273
76nan274
77nan273
78nan270
79nan266
80nan260
81nan253

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi