SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Rio Grande do Norte's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals3725
# data points208
# variables11
chi-square 9.7919e+09
reduced chi-square 49704948.3
Akaike info crit. 3696.79439
Bayesian info crit. 3733.50730

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 1.1740e-08 3.2331333117585626e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.59979693 0.56529468610473 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.01933318 0.004696331638811736 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 4.00000000 0.8097983173087062 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 0.13978611 0.8509196118680097 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.10000000 1.1000000548672584 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02380952 0.02381070392658028 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.02380952 0.045341267461671976 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 0.00978903 0.0001223635277237678 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00480769 0.004807692307692308 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 8.3462e-04 0.0015893918660894674 -inf inf False gammaD*0.033866813056881044/(1-0.033866813056881044)
dI 9.1808e-04 0.0017483311399039882 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 3506853.00 3506853 -inf inf False
N0 3481564.71 203938.50225207396 0.00000000 3506853.00 True
S0 1753424.50 441.35087721590276 0.00000000 1753424.50 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 1728138.21 203495.15137485805 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 208.000000 208 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
011
111
213
317
4115
5127
6144
7167
8697
99134
1013178
1113231
1214292
1319361
1428439
1545527
1668623
1777729
1882844
1992969
201051103
211761246
222121398
232421559
242461730
252541909
262612097
272612294
282632500
292892714
303022935
313393165
323763403
333993649
344003902
354634163
365164430
375314705
385954986
396085274
406465569
417085869
427546176
437816489
448256807
458327131
468577461
4710867796
4811778135
4912978480
5013668829
5113929183
5214219541
5315369904
54157410271
55173910641
56182111016
57191911394
58192811776
59198912161
60203312549
61236712940
62253713335
63278613732
64300414132
65313714534
66318414939
67348315346
68379615756
69406016168
70425116581
71459916997
72469717414
73475917834
74547218254
75563018676
76563019100
77646319525
78740219951
79740220378
80796420806
81823321235
82914921665
83928222096
84944022527
85944922959
86945223391
871088823824
881102724258
891156824691
901323425125
911350125559
921378925993
931417126427
941421426861
951521227295
961521227728
971588928162
981603928595
991920629028
1001929029460
1011995729892
1022007530324
1032177430755
1042266531185
1052373131615
1062425332044
1072445632472
1082972132899
1093028733326
1103189933752
1113289734177
1123342134601
1133425735024
1143464535446
1153498435866
1163582036286
1173651136705
1183706037122
1193826537539
1203861637954
1213942138368
1223980038780
1234034139192
1244065439602
1254097840010
1264130340417
1274345140823
1284376641228
1294395741631
1304426742032
1314518442432
1324605642831
1334668343228
1344692643623
1354709944017
1364729144409
1374837444800
1384905145189
1394966745577
1405041645963
1415155746347
1425184546729
1435203047110
1445256647489
1455349047867
1465410648243
1475471748617
1485515048989
1495529049360
1505542049728
1515792150096
1525657250461
1535707250825
1545746751186
1555766051546
1565772051905
1575789852261
1585830752616
1595866752969
1605913853320
1615919153669
1625939354016
1635958254362
1645964954706
1656016155048
1666044255388
1676089355726
1686121956063
1696150756398
1706164956730
1716174857062
1726199157391
1736243257718
1746285558044
1756328958368
1766369358690
1776380159010
1786381059328
1796387959645
1806413559960
1816451960272
1826487860584
1836504560893
1846530061200
1856536061506
1866564761810
1876593362112
1886632262413
1896665562711
1906696363008
1916718463303
1926721763596
1936745963888
1946776164178
1956805964466
1966833164752
1976850065037
1986862765319
1996876565600
2006901365880
2016943366157
2026971566433
2037010666707
2047055366980
2057072267251
2067078967520
2077104367787
208nan68053
209nan68317
210nan68579
211nan68840
212nan69099
213nan69356
214nan69612
215nan69866
216nan70119
217nan70370
218nan70619
219nan70867
220nan71113
221nan71358

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi