SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Rio Grande do Norte's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals14603
# data points208
# variables11
chi-square 1.4642e+08
reduced chi-square 743253.880
Akaike info crit. 2822.60739
Bayesian info crit. 2859.32031

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 3.2331e-05 1.2e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.56529469 0.55 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.00469633 0.001 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 0.80979832 0.01 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 0.85091961 0.2 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.10000005 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02381070 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.04534127 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 1.2236e-04 0.0001 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00480769 0.004807692307692308 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 0.00158939 0.0015933627105444055 -inf inf False gammaD*0.033866813056881044/(1-0.033866813056881044)
dI 0.00174833 0.0022307077947621677 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 3506853.00 3506853 -inf inf False
N0 203938.502 88803.75 0.00000000 3506853.00 True
S0 441.350877 0 0.00000000 1753424.50 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 203495.151 88801.75 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 208.000000 208 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
011
113
217
3114
4124
5137
6151
7168
8686
99105
1013126
1113148
1214172
1319196
1428221
1545247
1668275
1777303
1882332
1992362
20105393
21176425
22212457
23242491
24246526
25254562
26261599
27261637
28263676
29289717
30302759
31339802
32376846
33399892
34400939
35463988
365161038
375311090
385951144
396081200
406461258
417081317
427541379
437811444
448251510
458321579
468571651
4710861726
4811771803
4912971884
5013661968
5113922056
5214212147
5315362242
5415742342
5517392446
5618212554
5719192668
5819282786
5919892911
6020333041
6123673178
6225373321
6327863471
6430043629
6531373795
6631843969
6734834152
6837964345
6940604548
7042514761
7145994986
7246975223
7347595473
7454725736
7556306013
7656306305
7764636613
7874026937
7974027279
8079647639
8182338019
8291498418
8392828838
8494409279
8594499743
86945210230
871088810741
881102711276
891156811837
901323412423
911350113034
921378913672
931417114336
941421415025
951521215741
961521216482
971588917247
981603918037
991920618849
1001929019683
1011995720538
1022007521412
1032177422303
1042266523209
1052373124129
1062425325061
1072445626001
1082972126949
1093028727902
1103189928857
1113289729812
1123342130766
1133425731715
1143464532659
1153498433595
1163582034521
1173651135435
1183706036337
1193826537224
1203861638096
1213942138952
1223980039790
1234034140610
1244065441411
1254097842193
1264130342955
1274345143697
1284376644420
1294395745122
1304426745805
1314518446468
1324605647112
1334668347737
1344692648343
1354709948931
1364729149501
1374837450053
1384905150589
1394966751108
1405041651612
1415155752101
1425184552574
1435203053034
1445256653480
1455349053913
1465410654334
1475471754742
1485515055140
1495529055526
1505542055902
1515792156267
1525657256624
1535707256971
1545746757310
1555766057640
1565772057963
1575789858278
1585830758587
1595866758888
1605913859184
1615919159473
1625939359757
1635958260035
1645964960308
1656016160577
1666044260841
1676089361100
1686121961356
1696150761608
1706164961856
1716174862101
1726199162343
1736243262582
1746285562818
1756328963052
1766369363284
1776380163513
1786381063740
1796387963965
1806413564189
1816451964411
1826487864632
1836504564851
1846530065069
1856536065286
1866564765502
1876593365718
1886632265932
1896665566147
1906696366360
1916718466573
1926721766786
1936745966999
1946776167212
1956805967425
1966833167637
1976850067850
1986862768063
1996876568277
2006901368490
2016943368704
2026971568919
2037010669134
2047055369350
2057072269567
2067078969784
2077104370002
208nan70221
209nan70441
210nan70662
211nan70884
212nan71106
213nan71330
214nan71555
215nan71781
216nan72008
217nan72237
218nan72466
219nan72697
220nan72929
221nan73163

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi