SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Rio Grande do Norte's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals49
# data points208
# variables5
chi-square 164140.468
reduced chi-square 808.573736
Akaike info crit. 1397.55547
Bayesian info crit. 1414.24316

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 0.52297979 0.29747732 (56.88%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -14.9083708 7.87071497 (52.79%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 2273.75996 53.9215292 (2.37%) 2406 -inf inf True
step_center 116.285505 0.20702410 (0.18%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 44.8612114 0.88303943 (1.97%) 29.571428571428573 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9909
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9333
line_slopestep_sigma-0.8982
line_slopeline_intercept-0.8599
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.8044
line_interceptstep_sigma0.6582
line_slopestep_center0.2632
step_amplitudestep_center-0.2334
step_centerstep_sigma-0.1728

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
00-15
10-14
20-14
30-13
40-12
50-12
60-11
70-11
80-10
90-9
100-9
110-8
120-7
130-7
140-6
150-5
161-5
171-4
181-3
192-3
202-2
214-1
225-0
2371
2472
2583
26114
27115
28116
29137
30158
31179
321811
331912
342014
352315
362417
372519
382720
392822
402924
413427
423829
434031
444434
454537
464840
475343
485646
495649
505953
516157
526261
536865
547270
557675
568180
578785
588891
599297
6093103
61105109
62117116
63122124
64136131
65139140
66146148
67160157
68170166
69178176
70181186
71184197
72200208
73209219
74220231
75242244
76254257
77268270
78305284
79305299
80323314
81341330
82367346
83378363
84387380
85410398
86424416
87431435
88459455
89487475
90496495
91514516
92533538
93534560
94553583
95585606
96585629
97655653
98693678
99697703
100697728
101730754
102750780
103807807
104858834
105889861
106909888
107937916
108994944
1091034972
11010671001
11111031030
11211711058
11312001087
11412131116
11512481145
11612911174
11713261204
11813451233
11913561262
12013801291
12113941320
12214041348
12314321377
12414731405
12515011433
12615261461
12715721489
12815771516
12915851544
13016211570
13116361597
13216501623
13316661648
13416721673
13516781698
13616971723
13717141746
13817351770
13917511793
14017771815
14118791837
14218831858
14318941879
14419261900
14519331919
14619541939
14719651957
14819701975
14919721993
15019772010
15120032027
15220192043
15320362058
15420412073
15520622087
15620672101
15720812114
15821022127
15921262139
16021332151
16121542163
16221652174
16321702184
16421732194
16521922203
16622152213
16722192221
16822342230
16922422237
17022482245
17122562252
17222652259
17322752265
17422782272
17522812277
17622852283
17722862288
17822942293
17922952298
18022962302
18123022307
18223082310
18323132314
18423152318
18523172321
18623262324
18723302327
18823332330
18923412333
19023482335
19123512338
19223522340
19323552342
19423562344
19523662346
19623682348
19723722349
19823772351
19923772353
20023842354
20123932355
20223952357
20323982358
20424022359
20524022360
20624022361
20724062362
208nan2363
209nan2364
210nan2365
211nan2366
212nan2367
213nan2368
214nan2368

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi