SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Rio Grande do Norte's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(split_lorentzian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals51
# data points208
# variables4
chi-square 23372.6447
reduced chi-square 114.571788
Akaike info crit. 990.130969
Bayesian info crit. 1003.48112

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 3009.94046 214.454756 (7.12%) 8415.0 -inf inf True
center 108.301457 3.78226613 (3.49%) 113.2 -inf inf True
sigma 21.6367137 4.32101175 (19.97%) 22.0 0.00000000 inf True
sigma_r 36.3632493 5.56498049 (15.30%) 22.0 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 57.9999631 5.86381253 (10.11%) 44.0 -inf inf False sigma+sigma_r
height 33.0377379 2.26728131 (6.86%) 121.75352966665604 -inf inf False 2*amplitude/3.1415927/max(0.0000000, (sigma+sigma_r))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

centersigma0.7490
centersigma_r-0.6450
amplitudesigma_r0.5387
sigmasigma_r-0.3172
amplitudesigma0.3035

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
001
101
201
301
401
501
601
701
801
901
1002
1102
1202
1302
1402
1502
1612
1702
1802
1912
2002
2122
2212
2322
2402
2512
2632
2702
2802
2922
3022
3122
3212
3313
3413
3533
3613
3713
3823
3913
4013
4153
4243
4323
4443
4513
4634
4754
4834
4904
5034
5124
5214
5364
5445
5545
5655
5765
5815
5945
6016
61126
62126
6356
64146
6537
6677
67147
68107
6988
7038
7138
72169
7399
74119
752210
761210
771411
783711
79012
801812
811813
822613
831114
84915
852315
861416
87717
882818
892818
90919
911820
921921
93122
941923
953224
96025
977026
983827
99428
100029
1013330
1022030
1035731
1045132
1053132
1062033
1072833
1085733
1094033
1103333
1113633
1126833
1132932
1141332
1153532
1164332
1173531
1181931
1191130
1202430
1211429
1221029
1232828
1244128
1252827
1262527
1274626
128526
129825
1303624
1311524
1321423
1331623
134622
135621
1361921
1371720
1382120
1391619
1402619
14110218
142418
1431117
1443217
145716
1462116
1471115
148515
149215
150514
1512614
1521614
1531713
154513
1552112
156512
1571412
1582112
1592411
160711
1612111
1621110
163510
164310
1651910
166239
16749
168159
16989
17069
17188
17298
173108
17438
17538
17647
17717
17887
17917
18017
18167
18266
18356
18426
18526
18696
18746
18836
18986
19075
19135
19215
19335
19415
195105
19625
19745
19855
19905
20074
20194
20224
20334
20444
20504
20604
20744
208nan4
209nan4
210nan4
211nan4
212nan4
213nan4
214nan3

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi