SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Rio Grande do Norte's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals61
# data points208
# variables5
chi-square 4.3863e+08
reduced chi-square 2160734.22
Akaike info crit. 3038.81832
Bayesian info crit. 3055.50601

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 15.5476079 15.2501083 (98.09%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -758.848262 408.486461 (53.83%) 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 64837.9476 2788.48171 (4.30%) 71042 -inf inf True
step_center 117.748352 0.38554805 (0.33%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 45.4556248 1.61508360 (3.55%) 29.571428571428573 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9904
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9324
line_slopestep_sigma-0.8955
line_slopeline_intercept-0.8625
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.8065
line_interceptstep_sigma0.6576
line_slopestep_center0.2825
step_amplitudestep_center-0.2476
step_centerstep_sigma-0.1786

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
01-751
11-734
21-717
31-701
41-684
51-666
61-649
71-632
86-614
99-596
1013-577
1113-559
1214-540
1319-520
1428-501
1545-481
1668-460
1777-439
1882-417
1992-395
20105-371
21176-348
22212-323
23242-298
24246-271
25254-244
26261-215
27261-185
28263-154
29289-121
30302-87
31339-51
32376-14
3339926
3440067
35463111
36516157
37531205
38595257
39608311
40646368
41708428
42754492
43781559
44825631
45832706
46857786
471086871
481177960
4912971055
5013661155
5113921261
5214211372
5315361490
5415741615
5517391747
5618211886
5719192032
5819282187
5919892349
6020332521
6123672701
6225372891
6327863090
6430043299
6531373519
6631843749
6734833990
6837964243
6940604507
7042514784
7145995073
7246975374
7347595688
7454726016
7556306357
7656306712
7764637080
7874027463
7974027861
8079648273
8182338700
8291499141
8392829598
84944010070
85944910556
86945211058
871088811576
881102712108
891156812656
901323413218
911350113795
921378914387
931417114994
941421415615
951521216250
961521216899
971588917561
981603918237
991920618925
1001929019626
1011995720338
1022007521062
1032177421796
1042266522541
1052373123296
1062425324060
1072445624832
1082972125613
1093028726400
1103189927195
1113289727995
1123342128800
1133425729610
1143464530423
1153498431239
1163582032057
1173651132877
1183706033697
1193826534517
1203861635336
1213942136154
1223980036969
1234034137780
1244065438588
1254097839390
1264130340187
1274345140978
1284376641763
1294395742539
1304426743307
1314518444067
1324605644817
1334668345556
1344692646286
1354709947004
1364729147710
1374837448405
1384905149086
1394966749755
1405041650411
1415155751053
1425184551681
1435203052295
1445256652894
1455349053479
1465410654049
1475471754604
1485515055143
1495529055668
1505542056178
1515792156672
1525657257151
1535707257616
1545746758065
1555766058499
1565772058918
1575789859323
1585830759713
1595866760089
1605913860450
1615919160798
1625939361132
1635958261453
1645964961761
1656016162056
1666044262338
1676089362609
1686121962867
1696150763114
1706164963350
1716174863575
1726199163789
1736243263993
1746285564188
1756328964372
1766369364548
1776380164715
1786381064874
1796387965024
1806413565167
1816451965302
1826487865430
1836504565552
1846530065666
1856536065775
1866564765878
1876593365975
1886632266067
1896665566154
1906696366236
1916718466314
1926721766387
1936745966457
1946776166522
1956805966584
1966833166643
1976850066699
1986862766751
1996876566801
2006901366848
2016943366893
2026971566936
2037010666976
2047055367015
2057072267051
2067078967086
2077104367119
208nan67151
209nan67182
210nan67211
211nan67239
212nan67266
213nan67292
214nan67317

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi