SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Rio Grande do Norte's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(split_lorentzian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals81
# data points208
# variables4
chi-square 48843942.5
reduced chi-square 239431.091
Akaike info crit. 2580.25339
Bayesian info crit. 2593.60354

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 86903.0767 9870.70391 (11.36%) 644865.0 -inf inf True
center 105.545650 5.58260955 (5.29%) 122.25 -inf inf True
sigma 17.5568687 6.14756813 (35.02%) 26.0 0.00000000 inf True
sigma_r 39.8628713 9.02526002 (22.64%) 26.0 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 57.4197399 9.25743255 (16.12%) 52.0 -inf inf False sigma+sigma_r
height 963.505166 104.430072 (10.84%) 7894.880835443754 -inf inf False 2*amplitude/3.1415927/max(0.0000000, (sigma+sigma_r))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

centersigma0.7697
centersigma_r-0.6012
amplitudesigma_r0.5883
sigmasigma_r-0.3023
amplitudesigma0.2526

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
0126
1026
2027
3027
4028
5029
6029
7030
8530
9331
10431
11032
12133
13533
14934
151735
162336
17936
18537
191038
201339
217140
223641
233042
24443
25844
26745
27046
28247
292648
301349
313751
323752
332353
34155
356356
365358
371559
386461
391363
403865
416266
424668
432770
444473
45775
462577
4722979
489182
4912085
506988
512690
522994
5311597
5438100
55165104
5682107
5798111
589116
5961120
6044125
61334130
62170135
63249140
64218146
65133152
6647159
67299166
68313173
69264181
70191189
71348198
7298207
7362217
74713228
75158239
760251
77833264
78939278
790293
80562309
81269326
82916344
83133364
84158384
859407
863430
871436455
88139482
89541510
901666540
91267571
92288604
93382638
9443673
95998708
960744
97677779
98150813
993167846
10084876
101667903
102118926
1031699944
104891956
1051066963
106522963
107203962
1085265960
109566956
1101612952
111998946
112524939
113836931
114388922
115339912
116836902
117691890
118549878
1191205865
120351852
121805838
122379823
123541808
124313793
125324778
126325763
1272148747
128315731
129191716
130310700
131917684
132872669
133627654
134243638
135173623
136192608
1371083594
138677579
139616565
140749552
1411141538
142288525
143185512
144536499
145924487
146616475
147611463
148433451
149140440
150130429
1512501419
152-1349409
153500399
154395389
155193379
15660370
157178361
158409353
159360344
160471336
16153328
162202321
163189313
16467306
165512299
166281292
167451285
168326279
169288273
170142267
17199261
172243255
173441249
174423244
175434239
176404234
177108229
1789224
17969219
180256215
181384210
182359206
183167202
184255198
18560194
186287190
187286186
188389183
189333179
190308176
191221172
19233169
193242166
194302163
195298160
196272157
197169154
198127151
199138148
200248146
201420143
202282141
203391138
204447136
205169133
20667131
207254129
208nan127
209nan125
210nan122
211nan120
212nan118
213nan117
214nan115

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi