SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Poland's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals594
# data points90
# variables10
chi-square 78055.5742
reduced chi-square 975.694677
Akaike info crit. 628.883000
Bayesian info crit. 653.881097

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 9.9459e-06 5.984541025563525e-06 0.00000000 1.0000e-05 True
theta 0.15999861 0.10030218203026245 0.10000000 0.16000000 True
p 0.06201748 0.06191971703257016 1.0000e-03 0.33000000 True
sigma 0.14285714 0.14285714285714285 0.00000000 inf False
rho 0.12000000 0.12 0.00000000 inf False
epsilonA 0.10089802 0.10202542878721794 0.00000000 0.20000000 True
epsilonI 0.14260837 0.14398542315691146 0.10000000 0.40000000 True
lambda0 0.01111111 0.011111111111111112 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.14999999 0.10000374777692517 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
gammaI 0.10000000 0.1 0.00000000 inf False
gammaD 0.14963590 0.10014008223767501 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
cD 1.40000000 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
dD 0.00701208 0.004692656301915681 -inf inf False gammaD*0.044763271162123384/(1-0.044763271162123384)
dI 0.00981691 0.0065697188226819525 -inf inf False cD*dD
delta 0.00148494 0.001706008563850947 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
S0 357089.347 351570.1599365595 29274.0000 37978548.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 14637.0000 14637.0 0.00000000 inf False
E0 3.00000000 3.0 0.00000000 inf False
A0 1.20000000 1.2 0.00000000 inf False
I0 1.80000000 1.8 0.00000000 inf False
day 90.0000000 90 0.00000000 inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 0.00000000 inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 0.00000000 inf False
pop 37978548.0 37978548 0.00000000 inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
001
101
201
301
401
501
601
712
822
933
1033
1144
1256
1357
1459
15512
16515
17718
18822
191027
201432
211638
221644
231852
242260
253168
263378
274388
285799
2971110
3079123
3194136
32107149
33129164
34159178
35174194
36181210
37208226
38232243
39245260
40263278
41286296
42314315
43332333
44347352
45360371
46380390
47401410
48426429
49454449
50494469
51524488
52535508
53562528
54596547
55624567
56644587
57651606
58664625
59678645
60698664
61716683
62733702
63755721
64776740
65785758
66800776
67811795
68839813
69861831
70883848
71907866
72915884
73925901
74936918
75948935
76962952
77972969
78982985
799931002
809961018
8110071034
8210241050
8310281066
8410381082
8510511097
8610611113
8710641128
8810741143
8910921159
90nan1174
91nan1189
92nan1203
93nan1218
94nan1233
95nan1247
96nan1262
97nan1276
98nan1290
99nan1304
100nan1318
101nan1332
102nan1346
103nan1360

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi