SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Poland's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals4850
# data points90
# variables10
chi-square 4790898.64
reduced chi-square 59886.2330
Akaike info crit. 999.417700
Bayesian info crit. 1024.41580

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 5.9845e-06 9.535352711026473e-06 0.00000000 1.0000e-05 True
theta 0.10030218 0.15997763515663763 0.10000000 0.16000000 True
p 0.06191972 0.09798815235580167 1.0000e-03 0.33000000 True
sigma 0.14285714 0.14285714285714285 0.00000000 inf False
rho 0.12000000 0.12 0.00000000 inf False
epsilonA 0.10202543 0.08899512630419243 0.00000000 0.20000000 True
epsilonI 0.14398542 0.15581305199060125 0.10000000 0.40000000 True
lambda0 0.01111111 0.011111111111111112 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.10000375 0.10007159202051022 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
gammaI 0.10000000 0.1 0.00000000 inf False
gammaD 0.10014008 0.14999995812409633 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
cD 1.40000000 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
dD 0.00469266 0.0070291359168996774 -inf inf False gammaD*0.044763271162123384/(1-0.044763271162123384)
dI 0.00656972 0.009840790283659548 -inf inf False cD*dD
delta 0.00170601 0.0006229661355710014 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
S0 351570.160 29274.0 29274.0000 37978548.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 14637.0000 14637.0 0.00000000 inf False
E0 3.00000000 3.0 0.00000000 inf False
A0 1.20000000 1.2 0.00000000 inf False
I0 1.80000000 1.8 0.00000000 inf False
day 90.0000000 90 0.00000000 inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 0.00000000 inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 0.00000000 inf False
pop 37978548.0 37978548 0.00000000 inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
011
152
263
3117
41713
52224
63141
74964
86894
9104134
10125183
11177244
12238315
13287399
14355496
15425606
16536730
17634867
187491018
199011182
2010511360
2112211552
2213891757
2316381974
2418622203
2520552444
2623112697
2725542960
2829463233
2933833515
3036273806
3141024106
3244134413
3348484727
3452055047
3555755373
3659555705
3763566041
3866746382
3969346727
4072027075
4175827425
4279187779
4383798134
4487428492
4592878851
4695939211
4798569572
48101699934
491051110297
501089210660
511127311023
521161711386
531190211748
541221812111
551264012473
561287712834
571310513195
581337513556
591369313915
601400614274
611443114631
621474014988
631504715344
641536615699
651565116052
661599616405
671632616757
681692117107
691720417457
701761517805
711801618152
721825718498
731852918843
741888519187
751926819529
761973919871
772014320212
782061920551
792093120889
802132621226
812163121562
822207421897
832247322231
842282522564
852315522896
862357123227
872378623556
882416523885
892439524213
90nan24540
91nan24865
92nan25190
93nan25514
94nan25837
95nan26158
96nan26479
97nan26799
98nan27118
99nan27436
100nan27753
101nan28070
102nan28385
103nan28699

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi