SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Piaui's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals2883
# data points75
# variables10
chi-square 746.062508
reduced chi-square 11.4778847
Akaike info crit. 192.299096
Bayesian info crit. 215.473977

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 4.4942e-06 4.472465169239417e-06 0.00000000 1.0000e-05 True
theta 0.15766779 0.15999999649163915 0.10000000 0.16000000 True
p 0.03740489 0.038015812683419414 1.0000e-03 0.33000000 True
sigma 0.14285714 0.14285714285714285 0.00000000 inf False
rho 0.12000000 0.12 0.00000000 inf False
epsilonA 0.01737253 3.402095272164729e-11 0.00000000 0.20000000 True
epsilonI 0.29636969 0.10000000014354807 0.10000000 0.40000000 True
lambda0 0.01333333 0.013333333333333334 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.12502227 0.13711173139597743 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
gammaI 0.10000000 0.1 0.00000000 inf False
gammaD 0.14998876 0.14999992556992525 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
cD 1.40000000 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
dD 0.00506909 0.005069468006493906 -inf inf False gammaD*0.03269160915365056/(1-0.03269160915365056)
dI 0.00709673 0.0070972552090914675 -inf inf False cD*dD
delta 1.0344e-05 5.756506382681437e-14 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
S0 955842.050 945753.8532829455 6607.20000 3273227.00 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 3303.60000 3303.6 0.00000000 inf False
E0 9.00000000 9.0 0.00000000 inf False
A0 3.60000000 3.5999999999999996 0.00000000 inf False
I0 5.40000000 5.4 0.00000000 inf False
day 75.0000000 75 0.00000000 inf False
D0 3.00000000 3 0.00000000 inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 0.00000000 inf False
pop 3273227.00 3273227 0.00000000 inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
001
101
201
301
401
501
601
701
811
911
1031
1141
1241
1342
1442
1542
1642
1742
1842
1952
2063
2173
2273
2373
2484
2584
2685
2785
2886
2996
30107
31128
32148
33159
341510
351611
361713
371814
382015
392117
402418
412420
422422
432624
442826
452828
462930
473033
483536
493739
503842
514245
524548
534952
545755
556059
566063
576568
587272
598077
608582
618787
629193
639398
6499104
65107110
66110117
67119123
68134130
69138137
70146144
71157152
72161160
73168168
74180176
75nan185
76nan194
77nan203
78nan212
79nan222
80nan231
81nan242
82nan252
83nan263
84nan273
85nan285
86nan296
87nan308
88nan319

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi