SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Piaui's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(pvoigt)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals42
# data points75
# variables4
chi-square 252.798634
reduced chi-square 3.56054414
Akaike info crit. 99.1328859
Bayesian info crit. 108.402838

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 894.771300 1885.97564 (210.78%) 562.5 -inf inf True
center 96.0507811 58.2200734 (60.61%) 67.0 -inf inf True
sigma 28.6181865 26.9442584 (94.15%) 10.0 0.00000000 inf True
fraction 0.22993920 0.76110740 (331.00%) 0.5 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
fwhm 57.2363731 53.8885168 (94.15%) 20.0 -inf inf False 2.0000000*sigma
height 13.5976284 19.3466403 (142.28%) 22.163302280632962 -inf inf False (((1-fraction)*amplitude)/max(2.220446049250313e-16, (sigma*sqrt(pi/log(2))))+(fraction*amplitude)/max(2.220446049250313e-16, (pi*sigma)))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudecenter0.9975
centersigma0.9905
amplitudesigma0.9800
sigmafraction-0.9450
centerfraction-0.9105
amplitudefraction-0.8829

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
000
100
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600
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810
900
1020
1110
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
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1910
2010
2110
2200
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2410
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2601
2701
2801
2911
3011
3121
3221
3311
3401
3511
3611
3711
3821
3911
4031
4101
4201
4322
4422
4502
4612
4712
4852
4922
5013
5143
5233
5343
5483
5533
5604
5754
5874
5984
6055
6125
6245
6325
6466
6586
6636
6797
68157
6947
7088
71118
7248
7379
74129
75nan9
76nan10
77nan10
78nan10
79nan11
80nan11
81nan11

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi