SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Piaui's parameters

Information

Success statusFalse
Abort statusTrue
Fit messageTolerance seems to be too small. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals12000
# data points75
# variables5
chi-square 7768330.59
reduced chi-square 110976.151
Akaike info crit. 876.105830
Bayesian info crit. 887.693271

Variables

name value initial value min max vary
line_slope -24.0669534 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -114.477757 3 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 29646082.6 5503 -inf inf True
step_center 377.359256 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 121.911926 10.571428571428571 0.00000000 inf True

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
0363
1449
2435
3622
469
58-3
69-15
79-25
811-36
914-45
1016-54
1118-62
1218-69
1319-76
1421-81
1522-86
1623-89
1723-92
1828-94
1931-94
2038-93
2140-91
2241-88
2344-83
2450-77
2558-70
2675-61
2791-50
28102-38
29123-24
30145-8
3115810
3218630
3320652
3421776
35256102
36297131
37331162
38364196
39408232
40454271
41513314
42600359
43665408
44742459
45784515
46875574
47949636
481051703
491131774
501233849
511278929
5213321013
5314431102
5416121196
5517841295
5619051400
5720851511
5822521627
5922871750
6024401879
6126372015
6228522157
6330742307
6432582465
6533902630
6635502803
6737202985
6839663176
6942433376
7045033585
7147453804
7249314033
7351194273
7455064524
75nan4787
76nan5061
77nan5348
78nan5647
79nan5960
80nan6287
81nan6628

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi