SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Piaui's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_voigt)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals150
# data points75
# variables4
chi-square 70018.2185
reduced chi-square 986.172092
Akaike info crit. 520.926698
Bayesian info crit. 530.196650

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 4822389.87 3.9626e+11 (8217116.59%) 7546.5 -inf inf True
center 73.5488896 110.424688 (150.14%) 68.25 -inf inf True
sigma 3883.64564 3.1913e+08 (8217353.11%) 6.5 0.00000000 inf True
skew 159.251901 13086728.1 (8217627.54%) 0.0 -inf inf True
gamma 3883.64564 3.1913e+08 (8217353.12%) 6.5 -inf inf False sigma

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

sigmaskew1.0000
amplitudesigma1.0000
amplitudeskew1.0000
centerskew-0.9898
centersigma-0.9898
amplitudecenter-0.9898

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
031
111
201
321
401
521
611
702
822
932
1022
1123
1203
1313
1424
1514
1615
1705
1856
1937
2077
2128
2219
23310
24611
25812
261713
271615
281116
292118
302219
311321
322823
332025
341127
353930
364132
373435
383338
394441
404644
415947
428751
436555
447758
454263
469167
477472
4810276
498081
5010287
514592
525498
53111104
54169110
55172116
56121122
57180129
58167136
5935143
60153150
61197157
62215165
63222172
64184180
65132188
66160196
67170204
68246213
69277221
70260229
71242238
72186246
73188255
74387263
75nan271
76nan280
77nan288
78nan297
79nan305
80nan313
81nan321

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi