SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Norway's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals4350
# data points223
# variables11
chi-square 2.4541e+08
reduced chi-square 1157576.43
Akaike info crit. 3124.20955
Bayesian info crit. 3161.68844

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 1.0035e-05 0.7203229832786401 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.55000664 0.5999999986051762 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.00773092 0.5874069980345125 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 3.83379265 0.21650216508119732 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 3.77307711 0.11272073732984024 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.45513183 1.1000061113346051 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02386592 0.02423280929107569 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.07136165 0.023810488363102653 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 0.99999999 0.006506439141907294 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00448430 0.004484304932735426 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 0.00138376 0.0004617038710938676 -inf inf False gammaD*0.019021927094141248/(1-0.019021927094141248)
dI 0.00201355 0.0005078770798300991 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 5328212.00 5328212 -inf inf False
N0 472428.069 16029.673384091126 0.00000000 5328212.00 True
S0 625619.132 2456.7082682366413 0.00000000 2664104.00 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 0.00000000 13570.965115854484 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 223.000000 223 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
011
141
262
3154
4199
52518
63331
75650
88676
9113108
10147149
11169198
12192257
13277324
14489402
15621489
16621586
17907692
181077808
191169934
2013081067
2114231209
2215521359
2317421515
2419261678
2521321846
2623712018
2725662195
2829162374
2931562556
3035812740
3138452925
3241023110
3342263294
3444473478
3546653660
3649353841
3752084019
3855104195
3956404367
4057554537
4158634703
4260104865
4361605024
4462445178
4563205328
4664155475
4764885617
4865665755
4966775889
5067916019
5167916145
5269846267
5370686384
5471136499
5571666609
5672506715
5773456819
5874086918
5974677014
6075057107
6175337197
6276057284
6376677368
6477107449
6577597528
6677597603
6778097677
6878477748
6979037816
7079537883
7179957947
7280348010
7380698070
7480998129
7581068185
7681358241
7781588294
7881758346
7981978396
8081978445
8181978493
8282498539
8382578585
8482688629
8582688671
8683098713
8783098754
8883098793
8983528832
9083648870
9183838907
9284018943
9384118978
9484119012
9584119046
9684119079
9784469111
9884469143
9984779174
10085049204
10185049234
10285049263
10385479291
10485639319
10585769347
10685949374
10786069400
10886069426
10986069452
11086319477
11186319502
11286609526
11386929550
11486929573
11587089596
11687089619
11787459642
11887519664
11987779685
12087939707
12188159728
12288159749
12388159769
12488559789
12588659809
12688879829
12788959848
12888959867
12988959886
13088959904
13189309923
13289369941
13389479959
13489549976
13589659993
136896510011
137896510027
138898110044
139898410061
140900110077
141901110093
142901510109
143901510124
144901510140
145902810155
146903810170
147905310185
148906210200
149908510215
150908510229
151908510243
152911710257
153913210271
154915010285
155917210299
156920810312
157920810325
158920810339
159926810352
160933310364
161936210377
162940910390
163946810402
164946810414
165946810427
166963810439
167968410450
168975010462
169978310474
170985010485
171985010497
172985010508
1731000410519
1741006010530
1751011110541
1761016210552
1771019710563
1781019710573
1791019710584
1801032310594
1811039510605
1821045410615
1831050510625
1841054310635
1851054310645
1861054310654
1871064410664
1881078310674
1891087110683
1901103510692
1911112010702
1921112010711
1931112010720
1941138710729
1951151910738
1961162410747
1971174610755
1981186610764
1991186610773
2001186610781
2011215510790
2021227710798
2031239310806
2041249910814
2051264510822
2061264510830
2071264510838
2081289610846
2091300010854
2101315210862
2111327510869
2121340610877
2131340610884
2141340610892
2151369810899
2161378810906
2171391410914
2181402710921
2191414910928
2201414910935
2211414910942
2221445710949
223nan10956
224nan10962
225nan10969
226nan10976
227nan10982
228nan10989
229nan10995
230nan11002
231nan11008
232nan11014
233nan11020
234nan11027
235nan11033
236nan11039

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi