SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Norway's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals2297
# data points223
# variables11
chi-square 2.3707e+08
reduced chi-square 1118254.94
Akaike info crit. 3116.50286
Bayesian info crit. 3153.98175

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 0.72032298 1.2e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.60000000 0.55 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.58740700 0.001 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 0.21650217 0.01 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 0.11272074 0.2 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.10000611 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02423281 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.02381049 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 0.00650644 0.0001 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00448430 0.004484304932735426 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 4.6170e-04 0.0008813989564236357 -inf inf False gammaD*0.019021927094141248/(1-0.019021927094141248)
dI 5.0788e-04 0.00123395853899309 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 5328212.00 5328212 -inf inf False
N0 16029.6734 18071.25 0.00000000 5328212.00 True
S0 2456.70827 0 0.00000000 2664104.00 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 13570.9651 18069.25 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 223.000000 223 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
011
1447
26135
315252
419387
525534
633688
756846
8861004
91131160
101471315
111691467
121921616
132771761
144891902
156212041
166212175
179072307
1810772435
1911692560
2013082682
2114232802
2215522919
2317423034
2419263147
2521323258
2623713367
2725663473
2829163578
2931563682
3035813784
3138453884
3241023983
3342264080
3444474177
3546654272
3649354365
3752084458
3855104549
3956404639
4057554728
4158634816
4260104903
4361604989
4462445073
4563205157
4664155240
4764885322
4865665403
4966775483
5067915562
5167915640
5269845718
5370685794
5471135870
5571665945
5672506019
5773456092
5874086164
5974676236
6075056306
6175336376
6276056446
6376676514
6477106582
6577596649
6677596715
6778096780
6878476845
6979036909
7079536973
7179957035
7280347097
7380697158
7480997219
7581067279
7681357338
7781587397
7881757455
7981977512
8081977569
8181977625
8282497681
8382577736
8482687790
8582687844
8683097897
8783097949
8883098001
8983528053
9083648103
9183838154
9284018203
9384118253
9484118301
9584118349
9684118397
9784468444
9884468491
9984778537
10085048582
10185048627
10285048672
10385478716
10485638760
10585768803
10685948845
10786068887
10886068929
10986068970
11086319011
11186319052
11286609091
11386929131
11486929170
11587089209
11687089247
11787459285
11887519322
11987779359
12087939396
12188159432
12288159467
12388159503
12488559538
12588659572
12688879607
12788959640
12888959674
12988959707
13088959740
13189309772
13289369804
13389479836
13489549867
13589659898
13689659929
13789659959
13889819989
139898410019
140900110048
141901110077
142901510106
143901510134
144901510162
145902810190
146903810218
147905310245
148906210272
149908510298
150908510325
151908510351
152911710376
153913210402
154915010427
155917210452
156920810476
157920810501
158920810525
159926810549
160933310572
161936210596
162940910619
163946810641
164946810664
165946810686
166963810708
167968410730
168975010752
169978310773
170985010794
171985010815
172985010836
1731000410856
1741006010876
1751011110896
1761016210916
1771019710935
1781019710955
1791019710974
1801032310993
1811039511011
1821045411030
1831050511048
1841054311066
1851054311084
1861054311102
1871064411119
1881078311137
1891087111154
1901103511171
1911112011188
1921112011204
1931112011221
1941138711237
1951151911253
1961162411269
1971174611284
1981186611300
1991186611315
2001186611330
2011215511345
2021227711360
2031239311375
2041249911389
2051264511404
2061264511418
2071264511432
2081289611446
2091300011460
2101315211473
2111327511487
2121340611500
2131340611513
2141340611526
2151369811539
2161378811552
2171391411564
2181402711577
2191414911589
2201414911601
2211414911613
2221445711625
223nan11637
224nan11649
225nan11660
226nan11672
227nan11683
228nan11694
229nan11705
230nan11716
231nan11727
232nan11737
233nan11748
234nan11758
235nan11769
236nan11779

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi