SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Norway's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals57
# data points223
# variables5
chi-square 2687.42781
reduced chi-square 12.3276505
Akaike info crit. 565.084472
Bayesian info crit. 582.120331

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 0.29558001 0.00676150 (2.29%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -5.14936339 0.73385206 (14.25%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 213.827778 1.27999608 (0.60%) 275 -inf inf True
step_center 48.9111681 0.14175233 (0.29%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 17.8765014 0.28244544 (1.58%) 31.714285714285715 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.7793
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.6178
line_interceptstep_amplitude-0.5715
line_interceptstep_center0.5357
line_interceptstep_sigma-0.4357
line_slopestep_sigma-0.4112
line_slopestep_center-0.2671

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
00-5
10-5
20-5
30-4
40-4
50-4
60-3
70-3
80-3
90-2
100-2
110-2
120-1
130-1
140-0
1510
1611
1711
1812
1932
2033
2134
2265
2376
2477
2578
26810
271012
281214
291416
301618
312021
322224
332627
342830
353234
364238
374443
385048
395853
405958
416964
428070
438876
449282
459889
4610396
47114103
48127110
49130117
50136124
51136131
52148138
53154145
54154151
55163158
56169164
57180170
58191175
59193181
60193186
61193190
62195195
63202199
64204203
65204206
66204209
67208212
68208215
69209217
70209219
71209221
72213223
73213224
74217226
75224227
76228228
77229229
78232229
79232230
80232231
81232231
82233232
83233232
84234233
85234233
86235234
87235234
88235234
89235235
90235235
91235235
92236236
93236236
94236236
95236237
96236237
97237237
98237238
99238238
100238238
101238239
102238239
103239239
104239239
105239240
106242240
107242240
108242241
109242241
110242241
111242241
112243242
113244242
114244242
115244243
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117248243
118248244
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121249244
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130251247
131251247
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134252248
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138253249
139253250
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159256256
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170261259
171261259
172261260
173261260
174262260
175262260
176264261
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212270271
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215274272
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218274273
219275273
220275274
221275274
222275274
223nan275
224nan275
225nan275
226nan275
227nan276
228nan276
229nan276

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi