SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Norway's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals132
# data points223
# variables5
chi-square 31507874.7
reduced chi-square 144531.535
Akaike info crit. 2654.46251
Bayesian info crit. 2671.49837

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 282.253249 46.0845692 (16.33%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 1518.33698 1919.04306 (126.39%) 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude -55413.1130 15194.3587 (27.42%) 14456 -inf inf True
step_center 124.303813 0.52951455 (0.43%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 110.896746 12.8347387 (11.57%) 31.714285714285715 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9995
line_interceptstep_sigma0.9988
step_amplitudestep_sigma-0.9970
line_interceptstep_amplitude-0.9964
line_slopestep_sigma0.9940
line_slopeline_intercept0.9936
line_slopestep_center-0.3342
line_interceptstep_center-0.3266
step_amplitudestep_center0.3191
step_centerstep_sigma-0.2877

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
01-1610
14-1409
26-1210
315-1012
419-816
525-621
633-428
756-237
886-48
9113140
10147325
11169509
12192691
13277871
144891050
156211226
166211401
179071574
1810771744
1911691913
2013082080
2114232245
2215522408
2317422569
2419262727
2521322884
2623713039
2725663192
2829163343
2931563491
3035813638
3138453782
3241023924
3342264065
3444474203
3546654339
3649354472
3752084604
3855104733
3956404861
4057554986
4158635109
4260105230
4361605348
4462445465
4563205579
4664155691
4764885801
4865665909
4966776014
5067916118
5167916219
5269846318
5370686415
5471136510
5571666602
5672506693
5773456781
5874086867
5974676951
6075057033
6175337113
6276057190
6376677266
6477107340
6577597411
6677597481
6778097548
6878477613
6979037677
7079537738
7179957798
7280347855
7380697911
7480997964
7581068016
7681358066
7781588114
7881758161
7981978205
8081978248
8181978289
8282498329
8382578366
8482688402
8582688437
8683098470
8783098501
8883098531
8983528559
9083648586
9183838611
9284018635
9384118657
9484118679
9584118699
9684118717
9784468735
9884468751
9984778766
10085048781
10185048794
10285048806
10385478817
10485638827
10585768836
10685948844
10786068852
10886068859
10986068865
11086318870
11186318875
11286608879
11386928882
11486928885
11587088888
11687088890
11787458891
11887518893
11987778894
12087938895
12188158896
12288158896
12388158896
12488558897
12588658897
12688878898
12788958898
12888958899
12988958899
13088958900
13189308901
13289368903
13389478905
13489548907
13589658910
13689658913
13789658917
13889818921
13989848926
14090018932
14190118938
14290158945
14390158953
14490158961
14590288971
14690388981
14790538993
14890629005
14990859019
15090859033
15190859049
15291179066
15391329084
15491509103
15591729123
15692089145
15792089168
15892089193
15992689219
16093339246
16193629275
16294099305
16394689337
16494689370
16594689406
16696389442
16796849481
16897509521
16997839562
17098509606
17198509651
17298509698
173100049747
174100609798
175101119850
176101629905
177101979961
1781019710019
1791019710080
1801032310142
1811039510206
1821045410272
1831050510340
1841054310411
1851054310483
1861054310557
1871064410634
1881078310712
1891087110793
1901103510875
1911112010960
1921112011047
1931112011136
1941138711228
1951151911321
1961162411417
1971174611514
1981186611614
1991186611716
2001186611821
2011215511927
2021227712036
2031239312146
2041249912259
2051264512374
2061264512492
2071264512611
2081289612733
2091300012857
2101315212983
2111327513111
2121340613241
2131340613374
2141340613508
2151369813645
2161378813784
2171391413925
2181402714068
2191414914213
2201414914361
2211414914510
2221445714662
223nan14815
224nan14971
225nan15128
226nan15288
227nan15450
228nan15613
229nan15779

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi