SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

North Macedonia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_voigt)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals136
# data points89
# variables4
chi-square 32065.6587
reduced chi-square 377.243044
Akaike info crit. 531.934505
Bayesian info crit. 541.889050

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 12251.3138 30443.5587 (248.49%) 9630.0 -inf inf True
center 16.5215810 3.23082980 (19.56%) 54.0 -inf inf True
sigma 153.098867 397.012115 (259.32%) 30.0 0.00000000 inf True
skew 22.8360713 65.4284194 (286.51%) 0.0 -inf inf True
gamma 153.098867 397.012115 (259.32%) 30.0 -inf inf False sigma

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudesigma0.9995
sigmaskew0.9764
amplitudeskew0.9743
centerskew-0.4091
centersigma-0.4049
amplitudecenter-0.3969

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
010
100
201
301
401
521
642
723
843
904
1066
11127
12118
13610
142212
151514
162916
172218
181220
192922
202423
211825
222226
231828
242629
254430
262531
27031
287632
295332
30033
318733
322933
331833
344633
354833
364933
376833
382633
395433
406633
4110733
423633
435333
443733
451833
46633
472833
484133
492633
504133
511933
521333
532233
542133
552333
562933
571233
58533
59733
60833
611333
623333
631433
643633
652033
662233
671033
682033
692932
701732
712232
723032
732532
742232
751932
764032
772332
782032
793732
802132
811632
822532
833832
845232
853432
866232
878932
887632
89nan32
90nan32
91nan32
92nan32
93nan31
94nan31
95nan31

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi