SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Nepal's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals586
# data points118
# variables10
chi-square 192.420135
reduced chi-square 1.78166791
Akaike info crit. 77.7015938
Bayesian info crit. 105.408440

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 5.2715e-06 5.177950208834944e-06 0.00000000 1.0000e-05 True
theta 0.15996846 0.1599943031945835 0.10000000 0.16000000 True
p 0.00100018 0.0010000000000000182 1.0000e-03 0.33000000 True
sigma 0.14285714 0.14285714285714285 0.00000000 inf False
rho 0.12000000 0.12 0.00000000 inf False
epsilonA 2.1256e-09 1.2041461161516055e-10 0.00000000 0.20000000 True
epsilonI 0.10000136 0.10000498535312602 0.10000000 0.40000000 True
lambda0 0.00847458 0.00847457627118644 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.10000330 0.1000000012474232 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
gammaI 0.10000000 0.1 0.00000000 inf False
gammaD 0.10006467 0.14933266074481089 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
cD 1.40000000 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
dD 3.8284e-04 0.0005713349048103715 -inf inf False gammaD*0.003811338732729871/(1-0.003811338732729871)
dI 5.3598e-04 0.0007998688667345201 -inf inf False cD*dD
delta 5.7171e-13 5.551115123125783e-17 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
S0 235084.900 230569.66510335455 2518.80000 28087871.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 1259.40000 1259.3999999999999 0.00000000 inf False
E0 3.00000000 3.0 0.00000000 inf False
A0 1.20000000 1.2 0.00000000 inf False
I0 1.80000000 1.8 0.00000000 inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 0.00000000 inf False
pop 28087871.0 28087871 0.00000000 inf False
day 118.000000 118 0.00000000 inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 0.00000000 inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
001
101
201
301
401
501
601
701
801
901
1001
1101
1201
1301
1401
1501
1601
1701
1801
1901
2001
2101
2201
2301
2401
2501
2601
2701
2801
2901
3001
3101
3201
3301
3401
3501
3601
3701
3801
3901
4001
4101
4201
4301
4401
4501
4601
4701
4801
4901
5001
5101
5201
5301
5401
5501
5601
5701
5801
5901
6001
6101
6201
6301
6401
6501
6601
6701
6801
6901
7001
7101
7201
7301
7401
7501
7601
7701
7801
7901
8001
8101
8201
8301
8402
8502
8602
8702
8802
8902
9002
9102
9202
9302
9402
9502
9602
9702
9802
9902
10013
10123
10223
10323
10423
10533
10633
10734
10834
10944
11044
11144
11254
11365
11465
11585
11685
11786
118nan6
119nan6
120nan7
121nan7
122nan7
123nan8
124nan8
125nan8
126nan9
127nan9
128nan10
129nan10
130nan11
131nan11

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi